Climate Penalty: Climate-driven Increases in Ozone and PM2.5 Levels and Mortality

项目摘要 气候变化是21世纪最大的公共卫生挑战。虽然有许多不同的 气候变化对健康的影响已经被提出，即气候惩罚效应，即气温变暖 使环境空气质量恶化，从而影响人类健康，人们对此知之甚少，导致 与全球变暖相关的被低估的公共卫生负担。我们之前的流行病学研究 报告称，较高的夏季平均气温和较高的PM2.5浓度分别与 美国东南部(SEUS)医疗保险人群(65岁的≥)全因死亡率增加1，2卫星 地面观测表明，空气污染强烈依赖于空气污染的年际变化。 夏季平均气温(SEUS)3。这些发现表明，温度通过 除了直接的不利影响外，气候对空气质量的惩罚可能对西乌斯地区具有潜在的重要意义 我们观察到的影响。然而，明确的流行病学证据表明，空气污染是一种 温度对健康的影响，以及对这种影响的准确估计，在目前的文献中仍然缺乏。在这里， 根据我们的初步结果，我们假设气温上升可以间接影响各种原因的死亡率。 这是因为海洋中的PM2.5和臭氧水平都在恶化。我们提出了一项研究，该研究将利用医疗保险 2000-2016年(1.24亿人年)，这是Seus和 高分辨率的温度、PM2.5和臭氧数据，以调查因“气候”而导致的全因死亡 对“处罚效果”进行了调解统计分析。具体来说，在这个项目中，我们将(1)更新现有的- 通过合并集合在海乌斯地区1-km2网格到2016年的白天温度和臭氧预报 机器学习模型的平均化；(2)量化气候惩罚对全因死亡率的健康影响 使用中介分析，并探索减少人为空气污染排放是否可以作为 气候变化适应途径；(3)对与气候变化有关的超额死亡进行风险评估 利用气候模式输出，对21世纪中叶(2050)和21世纪末(2100)的空气污染进行气候惩罚， 化学品输送模型，以及目标2对“气候惩罚”的自上而下的估计。 研究将提高对气候、空气污染和人类健康之间相互作用的理解，基于 真实世界的大数据，并提供气候变化不利影响的重要途径的流行病学证据 影响人类健康，与气候和环境决策直接相关。

Project Summary Climate change is the greatest public health challenge of the 21st century. While numerous pathways of the health impact of climate change have been proposed, the “climate penalty” effect, i.e., a warming temperature worsens ambient air quality and consequently influences human health, remains poorly understood, resulting in an underestimated public health burden associated with global warming. Our previous epidemiological studies have reported that higher summer mean temperatures and higher PM2.5 concentrations are each associated with increased all-cause mortality in the Medicare population (aged ≥65) in the Southeastern US (SEUS)1, 2. Satellite and ground-based observations suggest a strong dependence of air pollution on interannual variabilities of summer mean temperature in SEUS3. These findings suggest that the indirect health effect of temperature via the climate penalty on air quality can be potentially important in the SEUS region, in addition to the direct adverse effects that we observed. However, clear epidemiological evidence of the air pollution serving as a mediator for the health effects of temperature, and accurate estimate of this effect is still missing in current literature. Herein, drawing on our preliminary results, we hypothesize that rising temperature can indirectly affect all-cause mortality via worsening both PM2.5 and ozone levels in the SEUS. We propose a study that will leverage the Medicare cohort from 2000-2016 (124 million person-years), the largest longitudinal cohort available for the SEUS and the high-resolution temperature, PM2.5, and O3 data, to investigate all-cause mortality in response to the “climate penalty” effect using a mediation statistical analysis. Specifically, in this project we will (1) update the present- day temperature and ozone predictions at 1-km2 grids across the SEUS through 2016 by incorporating ensemble averaging of machine learning models; (2) quantify the health effect of “climate penalty” on all-cause mortality using a mediation analysis, and explore whether mitigating anthropogenic air pollution emissions might serve as a pathway of climate change adaptation; (3) perform a risk assessment on the excess deaths related to the climate penalty on air pollution for the mid- (2050) and late-21st century (2100), using climate model output, chemical transport modeling, along with the top-down estimate of “climate penalty” from Aim 2. The proposed research will improve understanding of the interplays between climate, air pollution, and human health based on real-world big data, and provide epidemiological evidence of an important pathway that climate change adversely affects human health, with immediate relevance to climate and environmental policymaking.