Extreme heat events and pregnancy duration: a national study

极端高温事件与怀孕持续时间：一项全国性研究

• 批准号: 10159262
• 负责人: Howard H Chang
• 金额: $ 53.3万
• 依托单位: EMORY UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-05-01 至 2025-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10159262
• 关键词: 37 weeks gestation; Age Distribution; Air; Air Conditioning; Air Pollutants; Air Pollution; Bayesian Modeling; Birth; Birth Records; California; Characteristics; Child; Cities; Climate; Code; Colorado; Communities; Conceptions; County; Data; Data Set; Data Sources; Databases; Date of birth; Education; Ethnic Origin; Event; Exposure to; Florida; Frequencies; Future; Geography; Gestational Age; Goals; Health; Heat Waves; Heterogeneity; High temperature of physical object; Hour; Humidity; Income; Individual; Infant; Infant Mortality; Investments; Length; Location; Measurement; Measures; Mediating; Mediation; Medical; Meteorology; Methodology; Modeling; Monitor; Morbidity - disease rate; Neighborhoods; Neurologic; New Jersey; Ohio; Output; Pattern; Planet Earth; Population; Poverty; Pregnancy; Pregnant Women; Premature Birth; Prevalence; Principal Investigator; Public Health; Race; Reproductive Health; Research; Research Personnel; Residential Mobility; Resolution; Resources; Risk; Risk Factors; Sampling; Seasons; Socioeconomic Status; Source; Statistical Models; Surface; System; Temperature; Term Birth; Testing; Texas; Time; Uncertainty; United States National Center for Health Statistics; Washington; Weather; Work; adverse birth outcomes; atmospheric sciences; base; climate impact; climate zone; data centers; disability; extreme heat; health warning; innovation; meteorological data; pollutant; rural area; socioeconomics; urban area; weather stations

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT Recent studies suggest high ambient temperatures increase the risk of preterm birth (<37 completed weeks of gestation), a leading cause of infant mortality and long-term neurological disabilities. Infants born early term (37-38 weeks) also have more morbidity compared to full term births. Under climate projections, heat waves are expected to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration, and many will cause increases in ambient air pollutant concentrations. The proposed research seeks to use large existing databases and robust methodological approaches at multiple spatial scales to test the overarching hypothesis that extreme heat events increase the risk of preterm birth and early term birth, with stronger associations hypothesized to be observed following heat events of longer duration and greater intensity. Using national birth record data from the National Center for Health Statistics, we will assess these relationships in 114 large U.S. cities (covering 54% of the population) at a county-level spatial resolution over a 36-year period (1981-2016). We will additionally obtain birth record data from eight populous and geographically representative U.S. states (covering 40% of the population) over the period 1990-2016 to assess relationships at ZIP code or finer resolution and to examine possible mediation of heat wave associations by accompanying changes in air pollution levels. Meteorology will be characterized by integrating hourly data from multiple weather station networks and satellite-resources, harnessing the strengths of each dataset to maximize spatial and temporal coverage and minimize exposure prediction error. Ambient concentrations of 12 pollutants for the eight selected states will be also characterized by combining Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) outputs with monitor measurements. The statistical models for preterm and early term birth will account for seasonal patterns of conception (a possible source of bias in previous studies), and two-stage analyses using Bayesian hierarchical models will be used to combine information across study locations and assess heterogeneity by climate region, timing of the heat event (within season or across decades), maternal characteristics (educational attainment, race/ethnicity), and location-specific attributes (e.g., contextual socioeconomic indicators, air conditioning prevalence, urbanicity). Precise estimation of this heterogeneity is possible due to the exceptionally large sample, which also allows for examination of heat events defined using higher intensity and duration thresholds than previously assessed. The multi-scale approach facilitates assessment and propagation of uncertainty due to exposure prediction errors, spatial aggregation, and residential mobility during pregnancy. Results can be used to inform local public health warning systems such as heat advisories that target pregnant women with the ultimate goal of reducing early birth and its sequelae. The study will also yield lasting benefits for future studies of climate and health through the creation of an integrated, spatial and temporally-resolved, publically-available meteorology dataset for the continental U.S.

项目总结/摘要 最近的研究表明，高环境温度会增加早产的风险（<37周）。 妊娠），这是婴儿死亡和长期神经系统残疾的主要原因。早产儿 （37-38周）也有更多的发病率相比，足月分娩。根据气候预测，热浪 预计将增加频率，强度和持续时间，其中许多将导致环境空气质量增加 污染物浓度。拟议的研究旨在利用现有的大型数据库和强大的 在多个空间尺度的方法，以测试总体假设，极端高温 事件会增加早产和早产的风险，假设更强的相关性是 在持续时间更长、强度更大的高温事件之后观察到。使用国家出生记录数据， 国家卫生统计中心，我们将评估美国114个大城市（包括 54%的人口）在县级空间分辨率超过36年的时间（1981-2016）。我们将 此外，还可以从美国人口众多、地理位置具有代表性的八个州获得出生记录数据 （覆盖40%的人口），以评估邮政编码或更细的关系 决议，并检查可能调解的热浪协会伴随着空气中的变化 污染水平。气象学将通过整合多个气象站的每小时数据来表征 网络和卫星资源，利用每个数据集的优势， 覆盖范围和最小化曝光预测误差。12种污染物的8个环境浓度 选定的州还将通过结合社区多尺度空气质量模型（CMAQ） 带监控测量的输出。早产和早产的统计模型将解释 怀孕的季节性模式（以前研究中可能的偏差来源），以及使用 贝叶斯分层模型将用于联合收割机整合研究地点的信息，并评估 气候区域的异质性，热事件的时间（季节内或数十年），母体 特征（教育程度、种族/民族）和特定于位置的属性（例如，上下文 社会经济指标、空调普及率、城市化）。这种异质性的精确估计是 由于样本特别大，这也允许检查使用 强度和持续时间阈值高于先前评估的阈值。多尺度方法有助于 评估和传播由于暴露预测误差、空间聚集和 怀孕期间的居住流动性。结果可用于通知当地公共卫生预警系统， 作为针对孕妇的热疗法，其最终目标是减少早产及其后遗症。 这项研究还将通过建立一个气候和健康的未来研究产生持久的利益， 美国大陆的综合、空间和时间分辨的、公开可用的气象数据集。

项目成果

Confounding by Conception Seasonality in Studies of Temperature and Preterm Birth: A Simulation Study.

温度和早产研究中受孕季节性的混杂：模拟研究。

• DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001588
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
• 作者: Huang,Mengjiao;Strickland,MatthewJ;Richards,Megan;Warren,JoshuaL;Chang,HowardH;Darrow,LyndseyA
• 通讯作者: Darrow,LyndseyA

Richards and Darrow Respond to "Methodological Research on Pregnancy Weight Gain".

理查兹和达罗回应“妊娠体重增加的方法学研究”。

• DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwad083
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: American journal of epidemiology
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Richards,Megan;Darrow,LyndseyA
• 通讯作者: Darrow,LyndseyA

Effects of air pollution on adverse birth outcomes and pregnancy complications in the U.S. state of Kansas (2000-2015).

• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-48329-5
• 发表时间: 2023-12-06
• 期刊: Scientific reports
• 影响因子: 4.6

Acute associations between heatwaves and preterm and early-term birth in 50 US metropolitan areas: a matched case-control study.

• DOI: 10.1186/s12940-021-00733-y
• 发表时间: 2021-04-23
• 期刊: Environmental health : a global access science source
• 作者: Huang M;Strickland MJ;Richards M;Holmes HA;Newman AJ;Garn JV;Liu Y;Warren JL;Chang HH;Darrow LA
• 通讯作者: Darrow LA

Acute association between heatwaves and stillbirth in six US states.

在美国六个州，热浪与死产之间的急性关联。

• DOI: 10.1186/s12940-022-00870-y
• 发表时间: 2022-06-16
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH
• 影响因子: 6
• 作者: Richards, Megan;Huang, Mengjiao;Strickland, Matthew J.;Newman, Andrew J.;Warren, Joshua L.;D'Souza, Rohan;Chang, Howard H.;Darrow, Lyndsey A.
• 通讯作者: Darrow, Lyndsey A.