SOFTWARE FOR STOCHASTIC DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS

描述：拟议工作的目标是生产和销售 用于制作和解释的交互式软件 概率，年龄和性别结构，人口预测。这 软件将基于最近由美国国立卫生研究院资助的随机研究 对死亡率、生育率和人口的预测。该软件将专注于 关于概率一致性预测的使用和解释 衡量人口年龄段加权比率等指标，这些指标包括 分析老年人经济和健康的关键。一个重要的 该软件的目标是教育用户了解 不确定性，及其对决策和决策的重要性 投影。要开发的软件将具有以下版本 瞄准两个截然不同的市场。一个是教育和研究， 用户范围从高级本科生到研究生 学生和研究人员。另一个是商业性的，用户在 规划教育、医疗或其他行业的需求等行业 服务。

DESCRIPTION: The objective of the proposed work is to produce and market interactive software for the production and interpretation of probabilistic, age-and-sex structure, demographic forecasts. This software will be based on recent, NIH-funded, research into stochastic forecasts of mortality, fertility and population. The software will focus on the use and interpretation of probabilistically consistent forecasts of measures such as weighted ratios of population age-segments, which are key to analyzing the economics and health of the elderly. an important objective of the software is to educate users about the meaning of uncertainty, and its importance as an aid to decision-making and projection. The software to be developed will have versions that are to be aimed at two broadly distinct markets. One is education and research, with users spanning the range from advanced undergraduates to graduate students and researchers. The other is commercial, with users in industries such as planning demand for educational, health or other services.