Strategic Targeting of Price Discounts for Cigarettes: Firm and Consumer Behavior

描述（由申请人提供）：我们拟调查价格折扣券与吸烟行为的关系。之前的研究在很大程度上忽略了不同品牌香烟价格的差异。我们将研究卷烟制造商如何提供价格折扣券来吸引新吸烟者，劝阻吸烟者戒烟，并鼓励更换品牌。我们还研究了戒烟产品制造商如何利用优惠券来鼓励戒烟。研究1将使用价格折扣券的地理特定数据来检查优惠券提供如何随市场条件而变化。我们将检验H1和H2：卷烟税提高后（失业率上升时），卷烟制造商更有可能立即在市场上提供价格折扣；H3：在卷烟税提高后，制造商提供的戒烟价格折扣将会减少；H4：当失业率上升时，戒烟制造商将提供更多折扣。在研究2中，我们调查了个人吸烟行为。我们测试了H5：当提供给一个人更多的香烟优惠券时，他更有可能购买带有优惠券的烟草；H6：当提供给一个人更多的戒烟产品优惠券时，他更不可能购买带有优惠券的烟草。我们还将测试H7：如果一个人得到（更多）香烟优惠券，他就更有可能成为当前吸烟者；H8：如果向吸烟者提供（更多）戒烟产品优惠券，他最近更有可能尝试戒烟；H9：如果吸烟者获得（更多）香烟券，他成功戒烟的可能性就会降低；H10：如果向吸烟者提供更多的戒烟产品优惠券，吸烟者更有可能成功戒烟；H11：吸烟者更有可能转向价格较低的品牌，而不是在提供更多香烟优惠券的情况下戒烟或继续吸同一品牌；和H12：吸烟者更有可能戒烟，而不是转向价格较低的品牌，或者如果向他提供更多的戒烟优惠券，继续吸同一品牌。在研究3中，我们测试了H13：“付费转换”折扣应该更多地针对年轻（不太吸烟）的吸烟者，而不是年长（更吸烟）的吸烟者；H14：制造商将更有可能为那些在烟民更成熟的市场（杂志）上不是“优质”品牌的品牌提供（更大的）价格折扣。在研究4中，我们测试目标策略是否在地理市场区域内显着变化。具体来说，我们检验假设H15和H16，它们是上述假设H13和H14的实体对应。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We propose to investigate the relationship between price discount coupons and smoking behavior. Previous studies have largely ignored variation in cigarette prices across brands. We will examine how cigarette manufacturers offer price discount coupons to attract new smokers, discourage smokers from quitting, and to encourage brand switching. We also study how smoking cessation product manufacturers target coupons to encourage quitting. Study 1 will use geographic specific data on price discount coupons to examine how coupon offers vary with market conditions. We will examine H1 and H2: cigarette manufacturers are more likely to offer price discounts in markets immediately after the cigarette tax is raised (when unemployment increases); H3: Manufacturers will offer fewer cessation price discounts immediately after the cigarette tax is raised, and H4: Cessation manufacturers will offer more discounts when unemployment has increased. In Study 2 we investigate individual smoking behavior. We test H5: A person is more likely to buy tobacco with coupons when he is offered more cigarette coupons, and H6: a person is less likely to buy tobacco with coupons when he is offered more cessation product coupons. We will also test H7: A person is more likely to be a current smoker if he is offered (more) cigarette coupons; H8: A smoker is more likely to have recently tried to quit if he was offered (more) smoking cessation product coupons; H9: a smoker is less likely to successfully quit if he is offered (more) cigarette coupons; H10: a smoker is more likely to successfully quit if he is offered more smoking cessation product coupons; and H11: A smoker is more likely to switch to lower priced brands than he is to quit smoking or continue smoking the same brand if he is offered more cigarette coupons; and H12: A smoker is more likely to quit than he is to switch to lower priced brands or continue smoking the same brand if he is offered more smoking cessation coupons. In Study 3 we test H13: "pay to switch" discounting should be more often targeted at younger (less committed) rather than older (more committed) smokers; and H14: Manufacturers will be more likely to offer (bigger) price discounts for brands that are not "premium" brands in markets (magazines) with more mature smokers. In Study 4 we test whether targeting strategies vary significantly within a geographic market area. Specifically we test hypotheses H15 and H16 that are the in-store counterpart of hypotheses H13 and H14 noted above.