Containing Bioterrorist and Emerging Infectious Diseases

描述(由申请人提供)：这项研究的总体目标是开发、验证和实施自然发生的传染病和生物恐怖主义病原体的传播和宿主内动态的数学和统计模型。这些模型将用于评估各种干预措施的效力和效力，以协助分配和分配资源，以应对传染病暴发。具体目标如下： 1.为自然发生的传染病和生物恐怖主义制剂的传播建立流行病数学模型： A.为包括流感、霍乱、登革热、结核病和新出现的传染病威胁在内的重要传染病威胁开发或进一步开发数学模型。 B.利用流行病数学和统计模型，评估针对具体目标1.a的传染病监测和控制、疫苗接种、抗菌剂、社会距离和其他控制战略等干预措施的有效性。 C.使用和发展统计方法，从现有的传染病数据中估计重要的参数和变量。 D.制定框架，向公共卫生组织和研究人员提供所开发的数学和统计模型。 E.利用图论开发一个全面的框架，用于估计急性传染病的社会接触网络。 2.在宿主内部一级建立模型，使我们能够将单个宿主的感染动态与病原体在宿主群体中的传播联系起来： A.构建模型以研究病原体在宿主内的动态。 B.扩展在特定目标2.a中开发的模型，以包括抗病毒治疗和预防以及疫苗接种。 C.明确地将感染在宿主内的动态模型与其在宿主之间的传播联系起来。 公共卫生相关性：自然发生的传染病或生物恐怖主义制剂进入人口，继续对国家和世界构成相当大的公共健康威胁。这项研究将证明分析和数学工具有助于快速评估这些传染性病原体是如何传播的，以及如何实时控制它们。这项工作还将提供遏制失败时的控制方法。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The overall objective of this research is to develop, validate, and implement mathematical and statistical models for the transmission and within-host dynamics of naturally occurring infectious diseases and bioterrorism agents. These models will be used to assess the effectiveness and efficacy of various interventions to aid the distribution and allocation of resources in response to infectious disease outbreaks. The specific aims are as follows: 1. To develop epidemic mathematical models for the transmission of naturally occurring infectious diseases and bioterrorism agents: a. To develop or further develop mathematical models for important infectious disease threats including influenza, cholera, dengue fever, TB and new emerging infectious disease threats. b. To use the epidemic mathematical and statistical models to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions involving surveillance and containment, vaccination, antimicrobials, social distancing, and other control strategies for the infectious diseases in specific aim 1 .a. c. To use and develop statistical methods to estimate the important parameters and variables from data available for the infectious diseases. d. To develop frameworks to make the developed mathematical and statistical models available to public health organizations and researchers. e. To develop a comprehensive framework using graph theory for the estimation of social contact networks for acute infectious diseases. 2. To develop models at the within-host level which allow us to link the dynamics of infection of individual hosts with the transmission of the pathogen in the host population: a. To construct models to examine the within-host dynamics of pathogens. b. To extend the models developed in specific aim 2. a. to include antiviral treatment and prophylaxis as well as vaccination. c. To explicitly link the models of within-host dynamics of infection with its spread between hosts. Public Health Relevance: The introduction of naturally occurring infectious diseases or bioterrorism agents into the population continues to pose a considerable public health threat to the nation and the world. This research will prove analytical and mathematical tools to help with the rapid assessment of how these infectious agents are spreading and how to contain them in real time. This work also will provide methods for control should containment fail.