Research Project 3: Modeling the Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Polytobacco Use and Associated Health Disparities

项目摘要 烟草市场在过去十年中变得越来越复杂，最近有新产品 其他人在地平线上。产品的日益多样化将改变人们使用 烟草和其他含尼古丁物质，包括多种烟草使用者的新组合。之甚少 了解不断发展的烟草市场将如何塑造个体和混合烟草使用的模式， 他们随后的长期健康影响，以及社会经济地位（SES）的潜在差异， 种族/民族。由于包括电子烟在内的许多产品最近才进入市场，长期以来- 尚未进行长期健康结果研究。为了取代等待数十年的数据，模拟 建模可以预测未来的健康结果，并提供有关不同政策和法规 可能会影响聚烟草消费和下游健康结果的差异。的目的 该项目旨在评估与使用多种烟草相关的烟草相关健康差异，并调查 具体的烟草控制政策选择对这些差异的影响：（1）确定 混合烟草的使用和监测模式随时间的变化;（2）估计烟草控制的影响 烟草和尼古丁产品使用模式差异的政策;（3）确定下游烟草- 与个人和混合烟草使用相关的健康结果的相关健康差异;以及（4） 模拟潜在政策对烟草相关健康差异的影响， 烟草的使用。目标1和2的结果将提供基于证据和专家知情的估计， 多种烟草的使用，潜在的政策影响，以及SES和种族/民族的健康结果，以告知 目标3和目标4的建模，这将直接解决长期健康后果和政策方面的差异 影响。作为烟草法规公共卫生影响评估中心的一部分， 项目将侧重于影响分析（目标2和4）和健康影响（目标3和4），如RFA- OD-17-006，其次强调行为（目标1）。从这项研究中获得的知识将指导 决策者关于哪些潜在政策可能最有效地减少下游污染的决定 由于长期使用多种烟草，与烟草有关的健康差异。

Project Summary Abstract The tobacco market has become increasingly complex over the past decade, with new products recently introduced and others on the horizon. The increasing diversity of products will change the way people use tobacco and other nicotine-containing substances, including new combinations of polytobacco users. Little is known about how the evolving tobacco marketplace will shape the patterns of individual- and poly-tobacco use, their subsequent long-term health effects, and potential disparities by socioeconomic status (SES) and race/ethnicity. Because many products, including e-cigarettes, have only recently entered the market, long- term health outcome studies have not yet been conducted. In lieu of waiting decades for such data, simulation modeling can predict future health outcomes and provide insights into how different policies and regulations may affect disparities in consumption of polytobacco use and downstream health outcomes. The purpose of this project is to estimate tobacco-related health disparities associated with polytobacco use and to investigate the impact of specific tobacco control policy options on these disparities by: (1) determining disparities in polytobacco use and monitoring changes in patterns over time; (2) estimating the impact of tobacco control policies on disparities in patterns of tobacco and nicotine product use; (3) determining downstream tobacco- related health disparities in health outcomes associated with individual- and poly-tobacco use; and (4) modeling the impact of potential policies on tobacco-related health disparities associated with individual- and poly-tobacco use. Results from Aims 1 and 2 will provide evidence-based and expert-informed estimates of polytobacco use, potential policy impacts, and health outcomes by SES and race/ethnicity to inform the modeling in Aims 3 and 4, which will directly address disparities in long-term health consequences and policy impacts. As part of the Center for the Assessment of the Public Health Impact of Tobacco Regulations, this project will focus on Impact Analysis (Aims 2 and 4) and Health Effects (Aims 3 and 4), as described in RFA- OD-17-006, with a secondary emphasis on Behavior (Aim 1). Knowledge gained from this study will guide policy-makers’ decisions regarding which potential policies may be most effective in reducing downstream tobacco-related health disparities due to polytobacco use over time.