Research Project 3: Modeling the Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Polytobacco Use and Associated Health Disparities

项目摘要摘要 在过去的十年里，烟草市场变得越来越复杂，最近推出了新产品 已经介绍了，其他的也即将出现。产品的日益多样化将改变人们的使用方式 烟草和其他含尼古丁物质，包括多种烟草使用者的新组合。小才是 了解不断发展的烟草市场将如何塑造个人和多种烟草的使用模式， 其随后的长期健康影响，以及按社会经济地位(SES)和 种族/民族。由于包括电子烟在内的许多产品最近才进入市场，长久以来-- 尚未进行足月健康结果研究。而不是等待几十年才能得到这样的数据，模拟 建模可以预测未来的健康结果，并提供对不同政策和法规如何 可能会影响多种烟草使用的消费差异和下游健康结果。目的 该项目旨在评估与使用多种烟草有关的与烟草有关的健康差距，并调查 具体的烟草控制政策选择对这些差距的影响：(1)确定 使用多种烟草并监测模式随时间的变化；(2)估计烟草控制的影响 关于烟草和尼古丁产品使用模式差异的政策；(3)确定下游烟草-- 与个人和多种烟草使用有关的健康结果方面的相关健康差异；和(4) 模拟潜在政策对与烟草相关的健康差距的影响，这些差距与个人和 使用多聚烟草。目标1和目标2的结果将提供基于证据和专家知情的估计 多种烟草的使用，潜在的政策影响，以及按社会经济地位和种族/民族划分的健康结果，以告知 目标3和目标4中的建模，将直接解决长期健康后果和政策方面的差异 影响。作为烟草法规对公众健康影响评估中心的一部分，这 项目将侧重于影响分析(目标2和4)和健康影响(目标3和4)，如RFA所述- OD-17-006，次要强调行为(目标1)。从这项研究中获得的知识将指导 政策制定者关于哪些潜在政策可能在减少下游污染方面最有效的决策 随着时间的推移，使用多种烟草造成的与烟草相关的健康差异。

Project Summary Abstract The tobacco market has become increasingly complex over the past decade, with new products recently introduced and others on the horizon. The increasing diversity of products will change the way people use tobacco and other nicotine-containing substances, including new combinations of polytobacco users. Little is known about how the evolving tobacco marketplace will shape the patterns of individual- and poly-tobacco use, their subsequent long-term health effects, and potential disparities by socioeconomic status (SES) and race/ethnicity. Because many products, including e-cigarettes, have only recently entered the market, long- term health outcome studies have not yet been conducted. In lieu of waiting decades for such data, simulation modeling can predict future health outcomes and provide insights into how different policies and regulations may affect disparities in consumption of polytobacco use and downstream health outcomes. The purpose of this project is to estimate tobacco-related health disparities associated with polytobacco use and to investigate the impact of specific tobacco control policy options on these disparities by: (1) determining disparities in polytobacco use and monitoring changes in patterns over time; (2) estimating the impact of tobacco control policies on disparities in patterns of tobacco and nicotine product use; (3) determining downstream tobacco- related health disparities in health outcomes associated with individual- and poly-tobacco use; and (4) modeling the impact of potential policies on tobacco-related health disparities associated with individual- and poly-tobacco use. Results from Aims 1 and 2 will provide evidence-based and expert-informed estimates of polytobacco use, potential policy impacts, and health outcomes by SES and race/ethnicity to inform the modeling in Aims 3 and 4, which will directly address disparities in long-term health consequences and policy impacts. As part of the Center for the Assessment of the Public Health Impact of Tobacco Regulations, this project will focus on Impact Analysis (Aims 2 and 4) and Health Effects (Aims 3 and 4), as described in RFA- OD-17-006, with a secondary emphasis on Behavior (Aim 1). Knowledge gained from this study will guide policy-makers’ decisions regarding which potential policies may be most effective in reducing downstream tobacco-related health disparities due to polytobacco use over time.