Monitoring the Future: Drug Use and Lifestyles of American Youth

摘要 这项申请寻求监测未来（MTF）研究的五年延续，这是一项正在进行的研究。 1975年开始流行病学和病因学研究和报告项目。除了作为一个基本的 通过一项研究，MTF已成为美国最依赖的新兴趋势信息来源之一 在美国青少年、大学生和成年人中使用非法药物、酒精和烟草。全国 将对8年级、10年级和12年级的代表性样本（每年约42，000名学生）进行调查 从2022/23年到2026/27年每年。一个配套小组申请寻求继续进行后续调查， 过去和未来的高中毕业生在模态年龄19-30，35，40，45，50，55，60，和，新的这个周期， 六十五岁。该研究的队列顺序纵向设计允许测量和区分三个 变化类型-年龄（发展）、时期（历史）和队列。每个都有不同的决定因素，MTF 发现这三种类型的变化都发生在大多数药物上。可能解释历史趋势和队列的因素 差异也受到监控。MTF旨在记录以下方面的发展历史和后果： 从青少年到退休年龄的药物使用和相关态度，并确定个人 和环境特征和社会角色的转变，有助于改变和稳定的使用和 相关态度。这项工作将扩展到新的年份，队列和年龄下，这一主要应用程序和 后续应用程序。这项研究将探讨许多其他假设的重要性， 药物使用的心理、行为和社会决定因素（包括态度和信念，反 广告，角色模型和访问），以及一系列潜在的后果（包括物理和 心理健康、地位获得、角色表现和物质使用障碍的症状）。影响 将审查政策变化，包括旨在减少青少年vaping的新FDA政策。该研究的 非常广泛的衡量包括：（a）50多个类别和亚类的合法药物的启动、使用和停止 （B）对其中许多问题的态度和信念，包括人们认为的 伤害、反对和感知可用性的风险;（c）其他行为和个人特征（健康 困难、犯罪、学校表现、计划、愿望等）;和（d）主要社会环境的各个方面 (home、工作、学校）和社会角色地位、经历和转变。结果将继续阐明 从青少年到成年的药物使用-包括新药物的引入-主要 对政策、研究、治疗和预防议程的影响。

ABSTRACT This application seeks a five-year continuation of the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, an ongoing epidemiological and etiological research and reporting project begun in 1975. In addition to being a basic research study, MTF has become one of the nation's most relied upon sources of information on emerging trends in illicit drug, alcohol, and tobacco use among American adolescents, college students, and adults. Nationally representative samples of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students (about 42,000 students per year) will be surveyed annually from 2022/23 to 2026/27. A companion panel application seeks continuation of follow-up surveys of both past and future high school graduates at modal ages 19–30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, and, new to this cycle, age 65. The study's cohort-sequential longitudinal design permits the measurement and differentiation of three types of change—age (developmental), period (historical), and cohort. Each has different determinants, and MTF finds all three types of change occur for most drugs. Factors that may explain historical trends and cohort differences also are monitored. MTF is designed to document the developmental history and consequences of drug use and related attitudes from adolescence through the retirement years, and to determine the individual and contextual characteristics and social role transitions that contribute to change and stability in both use and related attitudes. This work will be extended to new years, cohorts, and ages under this main application and the companion follow-up application. The study will examine the importance of many other hypothesized psychological, behavioral, and social determinants of drug use (including attitudes and beliefs, counter- advertising, role-modeling, and access), as well as a range of potential consequences (including physical and psychological health, status attainment, role performance, and symptoms of substance use disorders). Impacts of policy changes will be examined, including new FDA policies aimed at the reduction of teen vaping. The study's very broad measurement covers (a) initiation, use, and cessation for over 50 categories and subcategories of licit and illicit drugs, including alcohol and tobacco; (b) attitudes and beliefs about many of them, including perceived risk of harm, disapproval, and perceived availability; (c) other behaviors and individual characteristics (health difficulties, delinquency, school performance, plans, aspirations, etc.); and (d) aspects of key social environments (home, work, school) and social role statuses, experiences, and transitions. Results will continue to elucidate drug use from adolescence through adulthood—including the introduction of new drugs—with major implications for policy, research, treatment, and prevention agendas.