STATISTICAL METHODS IN AIDS EPIDEMIOLOGY

这笔赠款的总体目标是发展和应用统计学 方法采用艾滋病流行病学研究方法。 这项提议有三个具体目标。第一个是 开发和比较不同的统计方法和研究设计 估计目前的艾滋病毒发病率。一种方法是调查 使用诊断试验，如检测p24抗原或其他标志物 在横断面调查中确定最近 被感染了。这项工作将需要对来源进行详细分析 使用这些方法估计艾滋病毒发病率的不确定性。这些 估计艾滋病毒发病率的方法将与其他方法进行比较 方法包括队列研究和反算方法 关于不确定因素、估计的精确度、样本量 建模假设的要求和敏感度。方法将是 用来估计印度目前的艾滋病毒发病率，以及在一个内部 市急诊部。第二个目标是发展统计 研究抗体前期(窗口期)的模型和方法，以及在 尤其是要估计p24抗原血症的持续时间。新统计 将开发方法并将其应用于对数据的分析 急诊科病人和血浆捐献者。第三个目标是 推广反算方法，以说明 艾滋病监测的定义，特别是要说明 1993年对案件定义进行了重大修订。这项工作将 包括将这些方法应用于美国艾滋病发病率数据，详细说明 模型影响的灵敏度分析与量化 说明有误。

The overall objective of this grant is to develop and apply statistical methods in AIDS epidemiology. There are three specific objectives of this proposal. The first is to develop and compare different statistical methods and study designs for estimating current HIV incidence. One approach will be to investigate the use of diagnostic tests such as tests for p24 antigen or other markers to identify individuals in cross-sectional surveys who were recently infected. The work will entail a detailed analysis of the sources of uncertainty in estimates of HIV incidence using these approaches. These approaches for estimating HIV incidence will be compared to other approaches including cohort studies and backcalculation methods with respect to sources of uncertainty, precision of the estimates, sample size requirements and sensitivities to model assumptions. The methods will be used to estimate current HIV incidence rates in India, and in an inner city emergency department. The second objective is to develop statistical models and methods for studies of the preantibody (window) period, and in particular to estimate the duration of p24 antigenemia. New statistical methods will be developed and applied to the analysis of data from emergency department patients and plasma donors. The third objective is to generalize the method of backcalculation to account for changes in the AIDS surveillance definition, and in particular to account for the significant revision of the case definition in 1993. This work will include application of the methods to U.S. AIDS incidence data, detailed sensitivity analyses and quantification of the effects of model misspecification.