Licensing Laws, Mobility, and Traffic Safety among Older Adults

 描述（由申请人提供）：第二次世界大战后婴儿潮一代的年龄达到65岁及以上（老年人），预计与前几代人相比，他们在以后的生活中将驾驶更多英里。这种人口结构的变化引起了国家层面的交通安全问题，因为老年驾驶员的撞车率较高，更有可能在撞车事故中受伤，并且不太可能从受伤中恢复并恢复受伤前的日常生活活动水平。各州颁布了各种与老年司机有关的许可证法。到目前为止，很少有研究调查这些法律的有效性，不仅保护老年司机， 还有那些与他们共享道路的人。目前尚不清楚这些法律如何影响老年人的驾驶行为，它们是否减少了驾驶员每小时或每次驾驶的伤害，它们在多大程度上增加了替代交通工具的使用，以及老年人作为乘客或行人的伤害是否相应增加。因此，我们提出了一个为期四年的项目，其目标是确定多个州的老年人驾驶决策，替代交通选择和费率的许可法的影响 老年人驾驶员、乘客、行人和骑自行车者之间的伤害性和致命性碰撞。我们假设，许可证法的有效性受到法律的某些条款的影响，并且许可证法减少了驾驶旅行和伤害，但增加了非驾驶旅行和伤害。该项目的目的是确定哪些法律规定减少驾驶时间和行程，执照率和每驾驶小时的事故率（目标1），以确定哪些法律规定增加替代交通和非驾驶伤害和死亡（目标2），并确定哪些法律规定影响总的交通行程，小时和老年人的碰撞（目标3）。将审查以下立法规定：更新方式（亲自或邮件/在线）、更新周期的长度、视力测试要求、道路测试要求、知识测试要求以及强制性医生报告医疗状况。这些目标将通过结合和分析来自联邦、州和私人机构维护的各种数据系统的旅行、许可证、经济、立法、人口和碰撞数据来实现。多层次的广义线性和负二项模型将被用来估计州一级法律对个人一级旅行的影响 行为和状态级别的崩溃率。在强有力的初步数据的指导下，这项研究也是创新的。举例来说，以创新方法量度每小时驾驶的碰撞率，并结合人均碰撞率，将有助确定法例条文在降低人均碰撞率方面的效果，是由于驾驶时数减少，还是由于驾驶更安全，抑或是两者兼而有之。这项研究意义重大，因为研究结果可以为政策制定者更新或修改现有立法的努力提供信息，以有效减少老年人的伤害事故，同时保护他们的人身自由和行动能力。

 DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Post-World War II baby boomers are reaching age 65 and over (older adults), and are projected to drive more miles later in life compared to previous generations. This demographic shift raises national-level traffic safety concerns, because older adult drivers have an elevated crash rate, are more likely to be injured in a crash, and are less likely to recover from injuries and resume the level of daily life activity prior to bing injured. States have enacted various licensing laws pertaining to older drivers. To date, little research has investigated the effectiveness of these laws in protecting not only older drivers, but also those who share the roadways with them. It remains unclear how these laws affect driving behaviors among older adults, whether they reduce driver injuries per driving hours or trips, the extent to which they increase the use of alternative transportation, and whether there are corresponding increases in injuries to older adults as passengers or pedestrians. Therefore, we propose a four-year project with objectives to determine, across multiple states, the impact of licensing laws for older adults on driving decisions, alternative transportation choices, and rates of injurious and fatal crashes among older adult drivers, passengers, pedestrians, and bicyclists. We hypothesize that the effectiveness of licensing laws is impacted by certain provisions of the law, and that the licensing laws reduce driving trips and injuries, but increase non-driving trips and injuries. The aims of this project are to determine which provisions of licensing laws reduce driving hours and trips, licensure rates, and crash rate per driving hours (Aim 1), to identify which provisions of laws increase alternative transportation and non-driving injury and fatality (Aim 2), and to identify which provisions of laws affect total transportation trips, hours, and crashes among older adults (Aim 3). The following legislative provisions will be examined: means of renewal (in-person or mail/online), length of the renewal cycle, requirements for vision tests, requirements for road tests, requirements for knowledge tests, and mandatory physician reporting for medical conditions. The aims will be accomplished by combining and analyzing travel, license, economic, legislative, population, and crash data from a variety of data systems maintained by federal, state, and private agencies. Multilevel generalized linear and negative binomial models will be used to estimate the effects of state-level laws on individual-level travel behaviors and state-level crash rates. Guided by strong preliminary data, this study is also innovative. For example, the innovative measurement of crash rate per hour of driving in combination with crash rate per capita will help determine whether the effects of the legislative provisions in reducing crash rate per capita are due to a reduction in driving hours, due to safer driving, or due to some combination of both. This study is significant, because the findings can inform policymakers' efforts to update or modify existing legislation to effectively reduce injurios crashes among older adults while preserving their personal freedom and mobility.