Dispersal and reproduction in changing environments

由于气候变化、生境破碎化、引进物种和管理目标的变化，世界各地的生态系统正在发生巨大变化。因此，植物和动物可能需要比以前分散更长的距离才能找到合适的栖息地。目前还不清楚在这些新环境中物种扩散会有多成功，我们对它们运动的预测充其量也是很差的。为了给管理者、科学家和公众提供预测，本研究将研究三个重要物种，白皮松（WBP）、白色云杉和狼的扩散和运动以及WBP的繁殖努力。 白皮松是北美西部山区的高海拔关键树种。由于一种入侵性疾病，人为的灭火和气候，它目前正在下降，这大大改善了毁灭性的山松甲虫的条件。在这项研究中，我将研究这个物种产生足够的种子和传播的潜力，以重建健康的白皮松森林。 白色云杉是北美北方森林的优势物种，在最近发生森林火灾的地区定居。目前，白色云杉似乎并没有使育空地区中南部最近的烧伤恶化，这可能是由于气候变化和扩散问题的综合作用。我将结合气候因素来研究扩散，以梳理明显缺乏成功的原因，并预测未来的变化，在目前，以前和潜在的白色云杉林。 在世界上的许多地方，大型食肉动物在人类的直接或间接帮助下进行繁殖。例如，北美和欧洲的狼在由于狩猎而缺席了几十年后，正在使许多地区变得更加活跃。虽然有人赞成也有人反对，但大多数人都有兴趣确定他们将在何时何地分散，他们的影响将是什么，以及如何管理他们。我将使用最先进的GPS项圈结合现代建模工具来预测它们向新区域的扩散，以便人类社区预测潜在的影响。

Ecosystems worldwide are changing dramatically because of changing climate, habitat fragmentation, introduced species and changing management goals. As a result, plants and animals likely will need to disperse longer distances than previously in order to find suitable habitats. It is unclear how successful species dispersal will be in these new environments and our predictions of their movements are poor at best. To provide predictions for managers, scientists, and the public, this research will examine dispersal and movement of three important species, whitebark pine (WBP), white spruce, and wolves as well as reproductive effort of WBP.  Whitebark pine is a high elevation keystone species in the western mountains of North America. It is currently in decline due to an invasive disease, human-driven fire suppression and a climate that is dramatically improving the conditions for the devastating mountain pine beetle. In this research, I will examine the potential for this species to produce enough seeds and disperse to recreate healthy forests of whitebark pine.  White spruce, a dominant species in the boreal forests of North America, colonizes areas that have had recent forest fires. Currently, it appears that white spruce has not been recolonizing recent burns in South central Yukon, and this may be due to a combination of changing climate and dispersal problems. I will examine dispersal in conjunction with climate factors to tease apart the reasons for the apparent lack of success and to anticipate future changes in currently, formerly and potentially white spruce forests.  In many places in the world, large carnivores are recolonizing with direct or indirect assistance by humans. For example, wolves in the North America and Europe are recolonizing many areas after decades of being absent due to hunting. While there are people both for and against the recolonization, most people are interested in determining where and when they will disperse, what their impacts will be, and how to manage them. I will use state-of-the-art GPS collars combined with modern modeling tools to anticipate their dispersal into new areas to allow for human communities to anticipate the potential impacts.