Models of chemical fate in the environment

现代社会受益于大量化学品的使用，包括石油和石油副产品，溶剂，农药，药品和阻燃剂。大多数是相对无害的，对人类健康或我们所依赖的环境不构成威胁。然而，有些化学品是有问题的，因为它们可能会持续很长一段时间（例如多氯联苯），它们可能会在鱼类和鸟类等生物体中积累（例如滴滴涕），它们可能毒性很大（例如二恶英），并且它们可能会长距离迁移到极地地区（例如，六氯苯）。而不是等待问题出现（到那时可能已经太晚了！）最好是采取主动，在问题化学品污染环境和造成不良影响之前就确定这些化学品。实现这一目标的最佳方法是使用数学模型来预测这些化学品在环境中的行为以及它们可能对生态系统造成的风险。

Modern society benefits from the use of a large number of chemicals including petroleum and petroleum by-products, solvents, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and fire retardants. Most are relatively innocuous and pose no threat to the health of humans or the environment on which we depend. Some, however, are problematic in that they may persist for long periods of time (e.g. PCBs), they may accumulate in organisms such as fish and birds (e.g. DDT), they may be very toxic (e.g. dioxins) and they may be transported long distances to polar regions (e.g., HCB). Rather than wait for problems to emerge (by which time it may be too late!) it is preferable to be proactive and identify problem chemicals before they contaminate the environment and cause adverse effects. The best way to accomplish this is to use mathematical models to predict how these chemicals will behave in the environment and what risk they may pose to the ecosystem.