Models of chemical fate in the environment

现代社会受益于大量化学品的使用，包括石油和石油副产品、溶剂、杀虫剂、药品和阻燃剂。大多数都是相对无害的，不会对人类的健康或我们赖以生存的环境构成威胁。然而，有些是有问题的，因为它们可能长期存在(例如多氯联苯)，它们可能在鱼和鸟类等生物体内积累(例如滴滴涕)，它们可能具有很大的毒性(例如二恶英)，它们可能被长途运输到极地地区(例如六氯苯)。而不是等待问题出现(到那时可能已经太晚了！)在污染环境和造成不利影响之前，最好是积极主动地识别有问题的化学品。实现这一目标的最好方法是使用数学模型来预测这些化学物质在环境中的行为方式，以及它们可能对生态系统构成的风险。

Modern society benefits from the use of a large number of chemicals including petroleum and petroleum by-products, solvents, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and fire retardants. Most are relatively innocuous and pose no threat to the health of humans or the environment on which we depend. Some, however, are problematic in that they may persist for long periods of time (e.g. PCBs), they may accumulate in organisms such as fish and birds (e.g. DDT), they may be very toxic (e.g. dioxins) and they may be transported long distances to polar regions (e.g., HCB). Rather than wait for problems to emerge (by which time it may be too late!) it is preferable to be proactive and identify problem chemicals before they contaminate the environment and cause adverse effects. The best way to accomplish this is to use mathematical models to predict how these chemicals will behave in the environment and what risk they may pose to the ecosystem.