Long-term changes in coastal oceans: cumulative effects and ecosystem consequences

许多海洋资源及其支持的海洋生态系统的枯竭状态，对我们今天的社会具有深刻的生态、经济和伦理关切。纵观历史，人类活动影响了海洋物种和沿海生态系统，但人类影响的速度和规模以及由此产生的生态变化随着时间的推移而加快。科学、管理和保护的一个基本问题是：在过去，人类的影响在多大程度上改变了物种丰富度和生态系统结构，这将如何影响物种的生存和今天和未来生态系统的功能？为了判断任何系统耗尽或恢复的当前状态，必须建立一个比较的历史基线。此外，未来的预测依赖于对长期趋势以及变化的根本原因和后果的了解。我们目前对多项人类活动的累积影响的理解很薄弱，特别是在大的时间和空间尺度上。拟议的研究计划通过关注两个主要目标来解决这些问题：(1)评估沿海生态系统长期变化的生态系统后果，(2)分析多种变化驱动因素的累积影响。我们将结合使用历史时间序列分析来评估长期趋势，使用多因素实地调查来评估跨越人类影响梯度的大规模变化，并使用实验室实验来分析当前驱动因素与未来气候变化之间的相互作用。生态系统模型将用于评估观测到的时间和空间变化的结构和功能后果。总体而言，拟议的研究计划将提高在历史生态学、生态预测和多重生态治理累积效应等发展中领域的科学知识和能力。科学和应用的重要性使这项研究计划成为培养高素质的科学、管理和保护人员的理想选择。

The depleted state of many marine resources and their supporting ocean ecosystems are of profound ecological, economical, and ethical concern for our society today. Throughout history, human activities have influenced marine species and coastal ecosystems, but the rate and scale of human impacts and resulting ecological changes have accelerated over time. One fundamental question to science, management, and conservation is: How much have human impacts changed species abundance and ecosystem structure in the past and how will this influence species survival and the functioning of ecosystems today and in the future? In order to judge the current state of depletion or recovery of any system it is essential to establish a historical baseline for comparison. Moreover, future predictions rely on understanding long-term trends and the underlying causes and consequences of change. Our current understanding of the cumulative effects of multiple human activities is weak, particularly over large temporal and spatial scales. The proposed research program addresses these issues by focusing on two major objectives: (1) to assess the ecosystem consequences of long-term changes in coastal ecosystems, and (2) to analyze the cumulative effects of multiple drivers of change. We will use a combination of historical time series analysis to assess long-term trends, multi-factorial field surveys to assess large-scale changes across gradients of human impacts, and laboratory experiments to analyze interactions between current drivers and future climate change. Ecosystem models will be applied to evaluate the structural and functional consequences of observed temporal and spatial changes. Overall, the proposed research program will enhance scientific knowledge and capacity in the developing fields of historical ecology, ecological forecasting, and the cumulative effects of multiple ecological controls. The scientific and applied importance makes this research program ideal for the training of highly qualified personnel for science, management, and conservation.