Persistence in Economic Time Series: Interpretation, Measurement and Inference

经济时间序列的持续性：解释、测量和推断。如果一个经济时间序列受到的冲击具有永久性影响，那么该序列就被称为持续性的。关于持续性的准确和明确的推论对于了解变量对冲击的反应，特别是对政策性冲击的反应至关重要。在这个项目中，我们将探索解释、测量和进行持续性推理的新方法。其目的是产生重大的理论和方法进步，当应用于经验问题时，将使人们能够就冲击的传播以及干预政府政策可能产生的影响得出可靠的结论。

Persistence in Economic Time Series: Interpretation, Measurement and Inference. An economic time series is said to be persistent if shocks to the series have a permanent effect. Accurate and unambiguous inferences regarding persistence are crucial to an understanding of the response of the variable to shocks, in particular to policy-induced shocks. In this project we will explore new ways of interpreting, measuring and conducting inference on persistence. The aim is to produce significant theoretical and methodological advances which, when applied to empirical problems, will enable reliable conclusions to be drawn regarding the propagation of shocks and, hence, the likely impact of interventionist government policies.