Combined potential hydrologic impact of global warming, climate anomalies, and landuse changes to river basins of western canada and adaptation strategies to mitigate impact

包括加拿大在内的世界范围内，水文极端事件发生的频率和严重程度越来越高，这可能是由于气候变化的影响。此外，加拿大西部（WC）也可能受到厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）、太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）和太平洋北美型态（PNA）等气候异常的影响。大多数用于设计市政基础设施的加拿大城市的强度-持续时间-频率（IDF）曲线可能已经过时，因为它们大多是基于单站点的年最大降雨量分析，假设是通过矩量方法校准的极值I型分布。此外，尽管全球变暖的影响可能会改变未来各种回归期极端降雨事件的强度，但IDF曲线被假设为“静止”，因此基于现有IDF曲线的设计风暴可能会被低估，这可能会大大降低加拿大现有和未来市政基础设施的安全标准。另一方面，最近2001-03年的干旱影响了加拿大全国，造成了农业收入的重大损失。面对未来的极端气候，我们有多脆弱？我们应该采取哪些审慎的适应性措施，为未来气候的不确定性做好准备？该提案有六个研究目标：(1)取代加拿大许多城市过时的IDF曲线；(2)利用集合经验模态分解方法绘制区域IDF曲线；(3)在政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）预估气候情景驱动的中尺度大气模式下，先独立后耦合模拟气候变化对加拿大选定城市IDF曲线的潜在影响；(4)评估气候变化和气候异常对未来水资源供应的综合潜在影响；(5)评估气候变暖导致的土地利用变化和植被变化对主要流域水文的影响；(6)应采取哪些适应策略来缓解气候变化、气候异常和土地利用变化对水资源的潜在影响？

Hydrologic extremes have been occurring more frequently and in greater severity worldwide, including Canada, which may be due to the impact of climate change. Furthermore, western Canada (WC) can also be affected by climate anomalies such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American pattern (PNA). Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves of most Canadian cities for designing municipal infrastructure are likely outdated, for they were mostly developed from single-site analysis of annual maxima rainfall assumed to be Extreme Value Type I distribution calibrated by the method of moments. Also, IDF curves are assumed to be "stationary" even though the effect of global warming could modify the intensity of future extreme rainfall events of various return periods, and so design storms based on existing IDF curves could be under-estimated, which could significantly reduce the safety standard of existing and future municipal infrastructure of Canada. On the other hand, the recent drought of 2001-03 affected Canada nationwide, causing substantial loss of agricultural revenue. How vulnerable are we to future climatic extremes? What prudent, adaptive measures should we implement to prepare for future climatic uncertainties? This proposal has six research objectives: (1) Replace obsolete IDF curves of many Canadian cities; (2) Develop regional IDF curves using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method; (3) Simulate potential impact of climate change to the IDF curves of selected Canadian cities by a mesoscale atmospheric model driven with projected climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in a stand-alone and then a coupled modes; (4) Assess the combined potential impact of climate change and climate anomalies on the future water supply of selected river basins of WC; (5) Assess how could landuse changes due to developments and the potential shift in vegetation caused by a warmer climate would modify hydrology of major river basins; and (6) What adaptation strategies should be implemented to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change, climate anomalies, and landuse changes to our water resources?