Population dynamics of migratory animals: integrating theory and data

加拿大的许多迁徙物种正在减少，但了解影响它们丰度的因素一直是一个挑战，因为迁徙动物分布在一系列复杂的繁殖和越冬地点，这些地点往往相隔很远的地理距离。我们最近开发了描述这些迁徙网络的数学模型，旨在预测环境变化将如何影响整个物种范围的种群。我研究的长期目标是能够将这些模型应用于迁徙物种，然后使用它们来预测未来种群规模的变化，并设计有效的保护计划。在接下来的5年里，我提出了几种解决这个问题的新颖方法。首先，我的实验室将使用化学标记(稳定同位素)来追踪帝王蝶每年春天重新定居北美时的迁徙模式。这将为我们开发预测帝王鸟对气候变化和栖息地丧失的反应的模型提供关键信息。其次，我们将使用两个25年以上的候鸟数据集来研究年周期不同时期的气候变化对种群数量的影响。为了从年度周期中提取气候数据，我们将在成年人身上安装小型地理定位器，以确定个体在冬季迁徙到哪里。第三，我们将以黑腹果蝇为实验模型系统，考察迁徙系统如何响应环境变化。结果将使我们能够快速评估迁徙生物如何应对栖息地丧失，并开发更好的野生生物预测模型。这项研究的资金将支持3名博士生和2名硕士研究生的培训。学生，以及众多本科生助教和高级荣誉毕业论文学生。所有学生都将有机会与生理、生态和进化科学方面的不同教员进行互动，并在现场和实验室接受广泛的技能培训。这项拟议的研究将提高我们对加拿大生态系统的关键组成部分之一的理解，并为学生在生物学和环境保护领域的成功职业做好准备。

Many of Canada's migratory species are declining but understanding the factors that influence their abundance has been challenging because migratory animals are distributed over a complex series of breeding and wintering sites that are often separated by large geographic distances. We have recently developed mathematical models that describe these migratory networks and are designed to predict how environmental change will influence populations across the species range. The long-term goal of my research is to be able to apply these models to migratory species and then use them to predict future changes in population size and design effective conserve plans. Over the next 5 years, I proposed to tackle this problem is several novel ways. First, my lab will use chemical markers (stable isotopes) to track the migratory patterns of Monarch butterflies as they re-colonize North America each spring. This will provide us with critical information for developing models to predict the response of Monarchs to climate change and habitat loss. Second, we will use two 25+ yr datasets on migratory songbirds to ask how variation in climate during different periods of the annual cycle influence populations. To extract climate data from the annual cycle, we will attached small geolocators to adults to determine where individuals migrate to during the winter. Third, we will examine how migratory systems respond environmental change using Drosophila melanogaster as an experimental model system. Results will allow us to rapidly assess how migratory organisms respond to habitat loss and develop better predictive models for wild organisms. Funding from this research will support the training of 3 Ph.D. students and 2 M.Sc. students, as well as numerous undergraduate assistants and senior honours thesis students. All students will have the opportunity to interact with a diverse array of faculty in the physiological, ecological, and evolutionary sciences and receive training in wide range of skills in both the field and laboratory. This proposed research will both improve our understanding of one of the key components to Canada's ecosystems and prepare students for successful careers in biology and conservation.