Predicting rapid intensity change of hurricanes

飓风，也被称为热带气旋，是最猛烈和破坏性的天气现象。在过去的十年里，仅在美国，飓风每年造成的经济损失就超过100亿美元。当飓风向高纬度地区移动时，它仍然可以通过产生强降雨、大浪和强风对陆地和海洋活动构成严重威胁。因此，对飓风的准确预测对于降低成本至关重要。在过去的几十年里，飓风的路径预报一直在稳步改进。然而，预测它们的强度，特别是强度的快速变化，仍然是一个巨大的挑战。更好地了解控制飓风强度快速变化（增强和减弱）的机制对于改进飓风强度预报至关重要。我们建议利用观测、理想飓风和真实飓风的数值模拟来研究飓风快速强度变化的动力学和可预测性。

Hurricanes, also named tropical cyclones in general, are the most violent and destructive weather phenomenon. Hurricanes have regularly resulted in annual economic losses exceeding $10 billions per year in the U.S. alone in the past decade. When a hurricane moves to higher latitudes, it can still pose a serious threat to land and maritime activities by producing intense rainfall, large waves, and strong winds. Accurate predictions of hurricanes are thus crucial to alleviate the costs. The track forecasts of hurricanes have been steadily improved over the last several decades. However, predicting their intensities, in particular the rapid intensity changes, remains a grand challenge. Better understanding of the mechanisms governing rapid intensity change (both intensification and weakening) in hurricanes is essential for improving the intensity forecast. We propose to study the dynamics and predictability of the hurricane rapid intensity change using observations, and numerical simulations of idealized and real hurricanes.