Satellite-derived models of available vegetation nutrition: projected impacts of climate change on critical grizzly bear food resources in Alberta

灰熊（Ursus arctos）是阿尔伯塔的濒危物种，因为它们的数量正在减少。了解气候对灰熊栖息地的影响是一个严重的管理问题，特别是考虑到最佳植被觅食地的时间短暂和空间限制。植物开花和结果等生命周期事件是自然界中受气候变化影响最敏感和最容易观察的特征之一。这项研究采用了远程延时摄像机和气象站的网络，以监测生命周期的发展，关键熊的食物植物在落基山脉的阿尔伯塔。观测结果将用于绘制卫星营养地貌图，显示灰熊食用植被的时间和数量。预测模型将用于预测气候变化对营养短缺的潜在影响，以及对灰熊种群的影响。验证模型将通过实验室分析进行，通过在气候模拟室中种植熊食植物来复制不断变化的环境条件，如温度和大气气体。气候变化导致的植物生命周期时间的变化可能会对灰熊和其他依赖周期性可用资源的物种造成严重后果。

Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) are a threatened species in Alberta due to their decreasing population numbers. Understanding the impact of climatic influences on grizzly habitat is a serious management concern, especially considering the temporal brevity and spatial limitations of optimal vegetation forage sites. Plant life-cycle events such as flowering and fruiting are one of the most responsive and easily observed characteristics in nature impacted by changing climate. This study incorporates a network of remote time-lapse cameras and meteorological stations to monitor the life-cycle developments of critical bear food plants in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta. Observations will be used to develop satellite-derived nutritional landscape maps that will show the timing and abundance of vegetation consumed by grizzly bears. Predictive models will be used to forecast the potential impacts of climate change on nutritional scarcity, and the effects on grizzly bear populations. Validating the models will occur through laboratory analysis, by growing bear food plants in climate simulation chambers that replicate changing environmental conditions such as temperature and atmospheric gases. Shifts in the timing of plant life-cycles due to climate change may have serious consequences for grizzly bears, and other species that depend on periodically available resources.