Vulnerability to global change in the arctic-breeding shorebirds

自然选择导致了有机体和它们的环境之间的匹配。在生态时期，这种匹配可以限制对环境变化的适应，但可以通过行为可塑性来放松。北极滨鸟的生态和行为多种多样，由于气候变暖，它们的繁殖环境正在发生变化。这项研究计划的目的是记录北极繁殖的滨鸟对气候变化的生物后果的脆弱性，包括栖息地的变化以及使用一系列在生态、行为和栖息地专一性上不同的物种的猎物、捕食者和竞争对手群落的变化。我们描述了五年研究计划的四种方法：(1)我们将确定马尼托巴省丘吉尔四种滨鸟的繁殖栖息地偏好、地点保真度和适合度(Dunlin，Calidris alpina，Whimbrel，Numenius phaeopus；半瓣鸟，Charadrius Semipalmatus，和红颈Phalaropus lobatus)。(2)我们将记录幼鸟生长速度随繁殖时间的变化，以评估气候变暖是否导致雏鸟生长和昆虫最高生产力匹配或错配。(3)研究向亚北极扩展的温带繁殖鹿(C.vociferus)与亚北极繁殖种半瓣交配的相互作用。据预测，在平均气温较高的年份，这种亚北极繁殖鸟的竞争力将超过温带繁殖种，而在平均气温高于平均气温的年份，则会出现相反的情况。(4)我们会研究三种不同保育水平的滨鸟，它们分布在两个不同风暴潮频度的越冬地点(例如古巴和美国佐治亚州)。我们将研究潮汐高度对觅食偏好和成功的影响。这项工作具有新颖性和重大意义，因为这一结果将有助于确定北极繁殖的滨鸟物种和栖息地最危险的一般原则，并提供证据表明行为灵活性是否赋予了对快速变化环境的影响的韧性。

Natural selection results in a match between organisms and their environments. In ecological time, this match can constrain adaptation to environmental change but can be relaxed through behavioural plasticity. Arctic shorebirds are diverse in ecology and behaviour and their breeding environments are changing due to climate warming. The objectives of this research program are to document the vulnerability of arctic-breeding shorebirds to biological consequences of a changing climate, including habitat alterations and changes in communities of prey, predators and competitors using a range of species that vary in ecology, behaviour and habitat specificity. We describe four approaches for the five-year research program: (1) We will determine breeding habitat preferences, site fidelity, and fitness of four species of shorebirds at Churchill, Manitoba (Dunlin, Calidris alpina, Whimbrel, Numenius phaeopus; Semipalmated Plover, Charadrius semipalmatus, and Red-necked Phalaropes, Phalaropus lobatus). (2) We will document variation in growth rates of the young as a function of timing of breeding to assess whether chick growth and peak insect productivity are matched or mismatched as a result of climate warming. (3) We will study the interaction between the temperate-zone breeding Killdeer (C. vociferus), a species expanding into the sub-Arctic and the Semipalmated Plover, a sub-arctic breeding species. The sub-arctic breeder is predicted to outcompete the temperate breeder in years with average temperatures, while the reverse is predicted in years with above average temperatures. (4) We will study three shorebird species with contrasting levels of conservation concern at two locations on wintering grounds that vary in the frequency of storm disturbance (e.g., Cuba and Georgia, USA). We will examine the impacts of tidal height on foraging preferences and success. The work is novel and significant in that results will allow identification of general principles for which arctic-breeding shorebird species and habitats are most at risk, and provide evidence of whether behavioural flexibility confers resilience to impacts of a rapidly changing environment.