Prediction of distribution feeder outages caused by storms

每年秋季和冬季，不列颠哥伦比亚省(BC)的下大陆都会经历暴风雨和极端天气。严重的暴风雨可能会摧毁树木和配电馈线，导致数千名客户在几个小时到几天内停电，迫使学校关闭，公共交通系统中断，生产线关闭。这个问题在冬天尤其严重，因为停电意味着在寒冷的天气里没有暖气。风暴造成配电网馈线中断的原因是多方面的，包括天气、环境和物理馈线条件。在风暴事件中，大风是馈线中断的主要原因，但并不是唯一的原因。配电馈线可能会因闪电、降雪、结冰、暴雨和树木倒下而发生故障。树木倒下与风有关，也与植被的接近和健康有关。在风暴中，老化的馈线可能有更高的停机概率。

Every year, the Lower Mainland in British Columbia (BC) will experience storms and extreme weather in fall and winter. Severe storms could knock down trees and distribution feeders, causing power outages for thousands of customers over several hours to several days, forcing school closure, interrupted public traffic systems, and shutting down production lines. This problem is especially serious in winter because power outages mean no heating in cold weather. A distribution feeder outage caused by storms is due to multiple factors, including weather, environment and physical feeder conditions. High wind is a major cause of feeder outage in a storm event but is not a unique one. A distribution feeder can fail due to lightning, snow, icing, heavy rain and tree falling. Tree falling is related to wind and also to the proximity and health of the vegetation. An aged feeder may have a higher outage probability in a storm.