Models to predict colonization, spread and evolution of invasive species

引进的非土著物种可能会对环境、健康和经济产生强烈的影响，因此各国政府将重点放在确定与引入加拿大生态系统相关的风险上。我们探索了从海外进入五大湖的航运媒介，尽管在五大湖和圣劳伦斯河之间航行的湖船从未被研究过。同样，还没有研究探索到北极的航运媒介。北极特别容易受到入侵，因为：i)浮冰的季节性消退将使更多的物种能够从太平洋扩散到大西洋，ii)浮冰的消退将可能使船只能够利用西北航道，并引入船体污染或压载水物种；iii)更温暖、更好混合的沿海水域将经历更多的藻类生产，这将被迁徙物种用作食物；iv)沿海水域对南方入侵者的环境适宜性将因季节性变暖而增加。在这里，我们将探索与湖船和开往北极的船只有关的压载水载体，以及北极船只的船体结垢。我们试图验证这样一种假设，即增加船舶交通会增加物种引入这些生态系统的速度。我们还将测试一些非本土物种的环境适宜性，以确定它们成功殖民和传播的潜力。我们还将探索在非本土物种不被期望的地区建立的种群是否由与来源种群遗传不同的入侵基因型组成。这些研究将对目前在加拿大传播的物种(如斑马贻贝、圆虎鱼)或那些预计将在不久的将来定居的物种(中华绒螯蟹)进行。这些研究将为物种在生物入侵期间如何传播和进化的概念模型提供信息。

Introduced nonindigenous species may have strong environmental, health and economic impacts, thus governments have placed a priority on identifying risks associated with their introduction to Canadian ecosystems. We have explored shipping vectors into the Great Lakes from overseas, although Laker vessels that move between the lakes and the St. Lawrence River have never been studied. Likewise, no studies have explored shipping vectors to the Arctic. The Arctic is particularly vulnerable to invasions because: i) enhanced seasonal retreat of pack ice will allow more species to disperse across the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean, ii) pack ice retreat will potentially allow ships to utilize the Northwest Passage, and introduce hull-fouling or ballast water species; iii) warmer, better mixed coastal waters will experience enhanced algal production, which will be used by migrating species as food; iv) environmental suitability of coastal waters to southern invaders will be increased by seasonal warming. Here we will explore ballast water vectors associated with Laker and Arctic-bound vessels, as well as hull fouling for Arctic ships. We seek to test the hypothesis that enhanced ship traffic increases the rate at which species are introduced to these ecosystems. We will also test the environmental suitability for a number of the nonindigenous species to determine their potential for successful colonization and spread. We will also explore whether established populations of nonindigenous species in areas where they are not expected are comprised of invasive genotypes that are genetically different from source populations. These studies will be conducted on species that currently are spreading in Canada (e.g. zebra mussels, round gobies) or those that are anticipated to colonize in the near future (Chinese mitten crabs). These studies will inform conceptual models of how species spread and evolve during biological invasions.