Maritime traffic pattern analysis for coastal protection

海上交通分析是帮助保护海岸的宝贵工具。在这项研究中，将考虑两种类型的危险：船舶的危险泄漏，以及识别表现出异常行为的船只，可能表明某些不良意图。使用计算机模型，我们将测量在特定时间范围内有多少船只通过特定区域，以及它们大量运输的是哪种类型的有毒物质。这可能是石油或其他危险和有毒物质(HN)，如化学品。然后，我们将评估泄漏的原因可能是什么，从故意倾倒到船只事故。在后一种情况下，浅水、拥堵区域和暴风雨是可能导致意外泄漏的一些因素。此外，由于海岸、保护区、人口密度较高等因素的敏感性，一些地区发生漏油的风险比其他地区更高。一旦我们能够根据流量、物质类型、频率和大小预测泄漏，我们就会使用这些信息来评估该国每个地区所需的响应能力，并将其与当前的能力进行比较，以便在必要时进行改进。 这项研究的另一个重点是利用沿海水域监测信息来检测船只的行为是否异常，可能表明存在威胁。如果一艘船正在进入禁区，跟踪一艘船，不稳定地移动，或者表现出其他意想不到的行为，那么这可能会引起人们的担忧，以便对情况进行调查。尽管一些沿海水域使用了各种类型的传感器进行监测，但有必要开发能够过滤所有信息并确定何时发生异常情况的计算机程序，以便发出警报。这是一个具有挑战性的问题，首先要绘制出该地区典型的船只路径和行为，以便当一艘船做一些非常不同的事情时，它将在正常的交通状况下脱颖而出。

Maritime traffic analysis is a valuable tool for helping protect the coasts. In this research, two types of hazards will be considered: hazardous spills from ships, and identification of boats that are displaying unusual behaviour, perhaps indicating some bad intent. Using computer models, we will gauge how many ships pass though a given area over a specified time frame, and what type of noxious substance they are carrying in large quantities. This could be oil, or other Hazardous and Noxious Substances (HNS), such as chemicals. We will then evaluate what the causes of spills could be, from deliberate dumping to vessel accidents. In the latter case, shallow waters, congested areas, and storms are some factors that could lead to accidental spills. Also, some areas are riskier than others if a spill occurs, due to the sensitivity of the shore, protected areas, higher density population, and other such factors. Once we can forecast spills based on traffic, by type of substance, by frequency, and by size, then we will use the information to assess the amount of response capability that is needed in every area of the country, and compare that with the current capacity so that improvements can be made if necessary. The other thrust of this research is to use coastal waters monitoring information to detect if a boat is acting in an unusual way that may indicate a threat. If a boat is entering restricted areas, shadowing a ship, moving erratically, or displaying other unexpected behaviours, then that could raise concerns so that the situation can be investigated. Although some coastal waters are monitored with various types of sensors, it is necessary to develop computer programs that can filter all of the information and determine when something unusual is happening so that an alarm can be raised. This is a challenging problem, which begins by mapping out vessel paths and behaviours which are typical for the area so that when a boat does something very different, it will stand out against the normal traffic picture.