Virtual weather observations, forecasting and validation

Pelmore x Media Inc.通过天气网络向加拿大和世界其他地区的消费者和商业客户提供高质量的天气信息。加拿大约20,000个站点的预报通过电视、互联网和移动电话发布，重点是及时交付。虽然目前对这些预报地点中约有1 000个地点进行了观测，但还有更多的地点没有进行现场观测。我们研究的目的是提供一种方法，用“虚拟观测引擎”(VOE)来生成最佳估计。 Pelmore x拥有一个原型引擎，它使用现有数据(包括加拿大约1,000个气象站和全球约7,000个气象站)的插值法，并结合数值天气预报。我们的目标是通过使用数据同化技术来改进虚拟观测引擎，并使用简单的指导方针或高分辨率边界层流动模式仔细地缩小尺度。此外，约克大学(陈博士的团队)目前正在使用WRF(天气研究和预报)模型，并在与Pelmore x联合开展的一个项目中吸收包括雷达风廓线数据在内的一系列数据。这项工作目前集中在安大略省南部，但将扩大到在全国各地其他技术难以预测可靠虚拟观测的关键地点或地区测试这一方法作为VOE的使用。泰勒博士的团队已经与Pelmore x合作，评估了他们的VOE原型的性能。在即使是中等复杂地形的地区，当地地形和地表性质(如粗糙度和反照率)的变化在确定当地风和温度方面可以发挥重要作用。其目的是开发在虚拟观测引擎方法中更好地考虑这些因素的方法。

Pelmorex Media Inc. via The Weather Network provide high quality weather information to consumers and commercial clients across Canada and in other parts of the world. Forecasts for approximately 20,000 sites in Canada are distributed via TV, internet and mobile phones with an emphasis on timely delivery. While current observations are available for about 1,000 of these forecast locations there are many more without in-situ observations. The aim of our research is to provide a methodology to generate best estimates with a "Virtual Observation Engine" (VOE). Pelmorex have a prototype engine using interpolations from available data (including about 1,000 weather stations in Canada and 7,000 world wide) coupled with numerical weather prediction forecasts. We will aim to improve the virtual observation engine through the use of data assimilation techniques, and careful down-scaling using simple guidelines or high resolution boundary-layer flow models. In addition York University (Dr Chen's group) are currently using the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model and assimilating a range of data, including radar wind profiler data, in a joint, MITACS supported, project with Pelmorex. This is currently focused on Southern Ontario but will be expanded to test the use of this approach as a VOE for critical locations or areas across the country where other techniques have difficulty in predicting reliable virtual observations. Dr Taylor's group have worked with Pelmorex to assess the performance of their prototype VOE. In areas of even moderately complex terrain the effects of local topography and variations in surface properties (such as roughness and albedo) can play a significant role in determining local wind and temperature. The aim is to develop approaches which take better account of these factors within the Virtual Observation Engine approach.