Variability in multicomponent ecological systems: a test of new framework

最近我们发现，如果我们测量生态变量的变化，如人口规模，森林生产力，害虫爆发的频率，物种随时间的损失，我们可以将其与该变量在空间上的变化完全联系起来。更准确地说，当站点独立变化时，随时间变化的方差等于空间变化的方差，如果站点一致变化，则方差可预测地更大，如果站点之间的变化始终不同，则方差可预测地更小。发现的关系提供了一般的预测和诊断的机会，评估感兴趣的生态因素的变化，重要的是，这种变化的机制。通过理论分析，实验室生态系统，自然水生微宇宙，和作物产量的实验，我们建议测试这种关系的合理性和实用性。

Recently we discovered that if we measure variation in an ecological variables such as population size, productivity of a forest, frequency of pest a outbreak, species loss over TIME, we can relate it EXACTLY to variation of this variable over SPACE. More precisely, variance over time equals variance across space when sites vary independently, is predictably greater if they vary in concert and predictably less if their variation is consistently different between sites. The discovered relationship offers general PREDICTIVE and DIAGNOSTIC opportunities for assessing variation of ecological factors of interest and, importantly, mechanisms underlying this variation. Through theoretical analyses, experiments with laboratory ecosystems, natural aquatic microcosms, and crop yields we propose to test soundness and utility of this relationship.