Towards an integrative theory of conditional reasoning

条件推理包括基于if-then前提进行演绎推理。它是高级科学和数学推理的关键组成部分，理解它的性质和发展过程是认知心理学中的一个重要问题，具有真正的教育意义。拟议的研究计划是一个正在进行的计划的延伸，该计划使用了一种修正形式的心理模型理论作为基础。根据这一理论，当人们进行推理时，他们首先使用简单的心理符号来表示前提。通过反例生成过程验证结论；如果产生反例，则结论被拒绝。先前的研究结果表明，这个过程是一个从更具体的形式到更抽象的形式的顺序，逐渐允许获得更完整的逻辑推理能力。其他研究结果表明，人们有时可以使用概率模式进行演绎推理，但他们往往不知道自己的推理有多合乎逻辑。拟议的研究将扩展这些先前的结果，以检查以下方面的发展模式：(1)使用反例和概率推理模式；(2)推理的发展与人们对自己推理过程的元认知意识相关的方式。其他研究将考察反例和概率推理方法可能影响人们在涉及启发式（如信念偏差）时做出的推断类型的方式。最后，这里提出的基本理论方法表明，训练发散性思维可能是提高人们逻辑推理能力的一种实用方法，这将在一系列训练研究中得到检验。

Conditional reasoning involves making deductive inferences based on if-then premises. It is a key component of advanced scientific and mathematical reasoning, and understanding its nature and developmental course is an important problem in cognitive psychology, and of real educational importance. The proposed program of research is an extension of an on-going program that has used a modified form of mental model theory as a base. According to this, when people reason, they start by representing the premises using simple mental tokens. Conclusions are verified by a process of counterexample generation; if a counterexample is produced, the conclusion is rejected. Previous results show that this process goes through a sequence from more concrete to more abstract forms, gradually allowing the acquisition of more complete logical reasoning abilities. Other results have shown that people can sometimes use a probabilistic mode of making deductive inferences and that they are often unaware of how logical their reasoning is. The proposed studies will extend these previous results in order to examine developmental patterns in (1) use of a counterexample and a probabilistic mode of inference and (2) the way that the development of reasoning is related to people’s metacognitive awareness of their own reasoning processes. Other studies will examine the way that counterexample and probabilistic ways of reasoning might affect the kinds of inferences that people make when heuristics, such as belief bias, are involved. Finally, the basic theoretical approach that is proposed here suggests that training in divergent thinking might be a practical way to improve people’s logical reasoning, something that will be examined in a series of training studies.