The NSERC TRIA Network: Turning risk into action for the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic

目前的山松甲虫(MPB)疫情已经影响到加拿大西部超过1500万公顷的土地。看来MPB将向北扩展超过60度，并向东进入北方森林似乎是不可避免的。在加拿大，已经花费了大约15亿美元来控制传播，希望能减轻这种毁灭性的森林害虫造成的破坏。了解影响MPB种群动态的因素对于设计有效、成本效益高的传播控制方案至关重要。评估和预测MPB风险的模型是传播控制计划的基石。这些风险模型的有效性受到我们对MPB-PINE-FORGAL联合系统缺乏了解的限制，特别是在新的(即非历史范围的)生境中。NSERC TRIA-NET的目标是：(A)填补MPB-PINE-FORGAL联合系统的关键知识空白，这些知识限制了我们监测、评估和预测MPB对加拿大森林的风险的能力；(B)利用这些知识为环境和社会经济风险模型的发展提供信息；(C)实时向决策者提供结果。随着疫情日益集中在新的栖息地，我们建议特别关注被认为影响MPB在这些新地区爆发动态的因素。将在四个主题下进行多个组织规模的研究。(1)分子尺度分析，以了解影响MPB成功和寄主质量的过程。(2)种群基因组学分析，以确定进入MPB的适应性变异因子是否在具有幼稚松树寄主的新生境中传播。(3)MPB种群动态的生态尺度分析，建立了新生境的林分敏感度和MPB扩散风险的改进模型。(4)利用生态系统服务框架对不同的MPB侵染情景进行社会经济学分析。研究小组和伙伴组织的多学科专业知识，以及拟议研究的综合、协作和跨规模性质，使“全面风险管理”方法成为可能。通过从艾伯塔省到魁北克省作为决策第一线的伙伴组织的积极参与，我们预计TRIA-Net成果的“信息与行动比率”很高。

The current mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic has affected more than 15 million hectares in westernCanada. It seems inevitable that MPB will spread northward beyond 60 degrees, and eastward into the borealforests. In Canada, ca. $1.5 billion has been spent on spread control, hoping to mitigate damage caused by thisdevastating forest insect pest. Understanding factors that influence MPB population dynamics is vital todesigning efficient, cost-effective spread control programmes. Models that assess and forecast MPB risk are acornerstone of spread control programmes. The efficacy of these risk models is limited by our lack ofunderstanding of the MPB-pine-fungal associate system, particularly in novel (i.e. non-historical range)habitats. NSERC TRIA-Net goals are to (a) fill key knowledge gaps of the MPB-pine-fungal associate systemthat limit our ability to monitor, assess, and predict MPB risk to Canada's forests; (b) use this knowledge toinform environmental and socioeconomic risk model development; (c) provide outcomes to decision-makers inreal-time. With the epidemic increasingly focused in novel habitats, we propose to focus specifically onaddressing factors that are thought to impact MPB outbreak dynamics in these new regions. Research will beconducted at multiple scales of organization under four themes. (1) Molecular-scale analyses to understandprocesses that affect MPB success and host quality. (2) Population genomics analyses to determine whetheradaptive variation factors into the MPB spread in novel habitats with naïve pine hosts. (3) Ecological-scaleanalyses of MPB population dynamics, leading to development of enhanced models of stand susceptibility andMPB spread risk for novel habitats. (4) Socioeconomic analysis of different MPB infestation scenarios using anecosystem services framework. The multidisciplinary expertise of the research team and partner organizations,together with the integrated, collaborative cross-scale nature of the proposed research, enables a "Total RiskManagement" approach. Through active involvement of partner organizations from Alberta to Quebec that arethe front lines of decision-making, we anticipate a high "Information-to-Action Ratio" for TRIA-Net outcomes.