Variability in multicomponent ecological systems: a test of new framework

最近我们发现，如果我们测量一个生态变量的变化，如种群数量、森林生产力、虫害暴发频率、物种损失随时间的变化，我们可以准确地将其与这个变量在空间上的变化联系起来。更准确地说，当站点独立变化时，随时间的变化等于跨空间的变化，如果它们一致变化，则可预测的更大，如果站点之间的变化始终不同，则可预测的更小。已发现的关系为评估感兴趣的生态因素的变化以及重要的是这种变化背后的机制提供了一般的预测和诊断机会。通过理论分析、实验室生态系统实验、自然水生微观世界和作物产量，我们建议测试这种关系的可靠性和实用性。

Recently we discovered that if we measure variation in an ecological variables such as population size, productivity of a forest, frequency of pest a outbreak, species loss over TIME, we can relate it EXACTLY to variation of this variable over SPACE. More precisely, variance over time equals variance across space when sites vary independently, is predictably greater if they vary in concert and predictably less if their variation is consistently different between sites. The discovered relationship offers general PREDICTIVE and DIAGNOSTIC opportunities for assessing variation of ecological factors of interest and, importantly, mechanisms underlying this variation. Through theoretical analyses, experiments with laboratory ecosystems, natural aquatic microcosms, and crop yields we propose to test soundness and utility of this relationship.