The spatiotemporal dynamics of plant invasions

我的研究计划的长期目标是了解为什么一些外来植物物种在其引进范围内比其他物种更成功地建立种群。短期目标是：(1)建立外来植物成功的简单预测模型；(2)确定为什么路边在其本地/外来范围的某些部分作为入侵植物物种的栖息地如此重要，而在其他地方则不是；(3)通过对一个正在经历重大环境变化的大湖的植物种群的详细研究，继续我对水生入侵者动态的研究。我假设本地范围大的物种很可能成为入侵物种，特别是如果考虑到居住时间、气候耐受性和物种池的系统发育结构。为了彻底测试原生范围（欧亚大陆）和引进植物（北美）的成功之间的联系，我建议使用植物地图集和植物标本馆作为数据源。我还假设，一些入侵物种在曲海的成功，在很大程度上是由一种资源（更宽、更受干扰的路边）所解释的，而这种资源在欧洲是不太容易获得的。换句话说，问题不在于本地/外来的二分法；更恰当的问题是，是否有机会获得一项关键资源（生境）。预测四种入侵物种存在的模型将在法国进行测试，在法国的路边也发现了同样的物种。最后，我打算对圣皮埃尔湖最近和正在进行的植物入侵进行时空研究。由于气候变暖，该地点面临植物入侵的风险：由于干旱条件导致的新兴泥滩特别容易受到入侵。然而，哪些外来或本地物种已经或将利用低水位仍有待确定。我假设入侵泥滩的植物具有一套特殊的特征，使它们能够利用不断变化的环境，这些特征与本地/外来状态无关。通过对圣皮埃尔湖植物种群的调查和植物性状的详细分析，找出入侵泥滩的物种与其他物种的区别特征。

The long-term objective of my research program is to understand why some exotic plant species are more successful than others in establishing populations in their introduced range. The short-term objectives are to (1) construct simple predictive models of the success of exotic plants, (2) determine why roadsides are so important as habitats for invasive plant species in some parts of their native/exotic range but not in others, and (3) pursue my research on the dynamics of aquatic invaders through a detailed study of plant populations of a large lake that is undergoing major environmental change. I hypothesize that species with a large native range are likely to become invasive, especially if residence time, climate tolerance and the phylogenetic structure of the pool of species examined are taken into account. For a thorough test of the link between the extent of the native range (Eurasia) and the success of introduced plants (North America), I propose to use plant atlases and herbaria as data sources. I also hypothesize that the success of several invasive species in Québec is in large part explained by a resource (roadsides wider and more disturbed) that is less available in Europe. In other words, the question is not the native/exotic dichotomy; the question is more aptly contextualized as whether there is access to a critical resource (habitat). Models predicting the presence of four invasive species along Québec roads will be tested in France where the same species are also found on roadsides. Finally, I intend to conduct a spatiotemporal study of recent and ongoing plant invasions of Lake St. Pierre. This site is at risk for plant invasions due to climate warming: the emergent mudflats resulting from drought conditions are especially invasion prone. However, which exotic or native species have or will take advantage of the low water levels remains to be determined. I hypothesize that plants invading mudflats have a particular suite of traits enabling them to exploit the changing environment, such traits being independent of the native/exotic status. Surveys of plant populations of Lake St. Pierre and detailed analyses of plant traits will be conducted to identify traits discriminating species having invaded mudflats from others.