Improving Earthquake Ground Motion Prediction Across Canada

在地震地面运动预测中存在着很大的不确定性：地震破裂将如何在时间和空间上传播？地震震动的分布会是什么？我的建筑能抵挡住震动吗？我的研究计划的长期愿景是改进对整个加拿大地震地面震动的预测，特别是了解地震波沿其路径(区域尺度)穿过地球地质层以及在地表场地(局部尺度)传播时如何变化。为了实现这些目标，我将开发和应用最先进的地球物理技术：基于现场的微震方法和理论3D波传播模型。估计地震的影响或后果直接取决于对地震地面震动的估计，而地震地面震动的估计取决于对场地反应和地质放大的了解。这一理解将为旨在估计和减轻潜在地震损失的一系列多学科工作提供信息，这些损失的形式包括人员伤亡、建筑物损坏和系统中断。

There is a lot of uncertainty in earthquake ground motion prediction: How will the earthquake rupture propagate in time and space?, What will be the distribution of earthquake shaking?, Will my building withstand the shaking? The long-term vision of my research program is to improve prediction of earthquake ground shaking across Canada, in particular understanding how earthquake waves are altered as they travel through the earth’s geologic layers along their path (regional scale) and at a surface site (local scale). To achieve these goals, I will develop and apply state-of-the-art geophysical techniques: field-based microtremor methods and theoretical 3D wave propagation modelling. Estimating the impact or consequences of an earthquake depends directly on estimates of earthquake ground shaking, which are reliant on understanding site response and geological amplifications. This understanding will inform a range of multi-disciplinary works aimed at estimating and mitigating potential earthquake losses in the forms of casualties, building damage, and system interruptions.