Improving Earthquake Ground Motion Prediction Across Canada

改善加拿大各地的地震地面运动预测

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-04634
• 负责人: Molnar, Sheri
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=751163
• 关键词: Improving; Earthquake; Ground; Motion; Prediction

There is a lot of uncertainty in earthquake ground motion prediction: How will the earthquake rupture propagate in time and space?, What will be the distribution of earthquake shaking?, Will my building withstand the shaking? The long-term vision of my research program is to improve prediction of earthquake ground shaking across Canada, in particular understanding how earthquake waves are altered as they travel through the earth's geologic layers along their path (regional scale) and at a surface site (local scale). To achieve these goals, I will develop and apply state-of-the-art geophysical techniques: field-based microtremor methods and theoretical 3D wave propagation modelling. Estimating the impact or consequences of an earthquake depends directly on estimates of earthquake ground shaking, which are reliant on understanding site response and geological amplifications. This understanding will inform a range of multi-disciplinary works aimed at estimating and mitigating potential earthquake losses in the forms of casualties, building damage, and system interruptions.My research program to understand earthquake site response behaviour and thereby predict expected variation in ground shaking will be achieved by three main objectives:1. Site characterization studies in western and eastern Canada: Field-based seismic measurements will be performed in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario to understand and parameterize the differences in soil amplification between western and eastern Canada. This objective will provide an understanding of earthquake site response across Canada's varied geologic settings.2. Addressing ground motion uncertainty via computational methods: Numerical computations of earthquake rupture within 3D earth models will be performed for region-specific scenario earthquakes in Canada. These computational simulations will address current gaps in recorded earthquake data and quantify the potential range (uncertainty) of earthquake ground shaking.3. Improving current earthquake site response predictor(s): Earthquake ground motion amplitudes at various frequencies (spectra) will be determined from earthquake and field-based seismic measurements as well as computational simulations for typical Canadian geologic settings. Quantitative uncertainty bounds of spectral amplification may then be derived for typical geology in western and eastern Canada to improve our understanding of earthquake site response and its treatment in future building codes.Accurately predicting earthquake ground motion is important for life-safety (engineering design guidelines and codes) and planning (land use management, emergency response, business continuity, insurance rates, etc.) purposes. Hence, the proposed research is important to the earthquake engineering community, as well as to the scientific and emergency management communities.

在地震地面运动预测中有很多不确定性：地震破裂将如何在时间和空间上传播？地震震动的分布情况如何？我的建筑物能经受得住震动吗？我的研究计划的长期愿景是提高整个加拿大地震地面震动的预测，特别是了解地震波是如何改变，因为他们通过地球的地质层沿沿着他们的路径（区域规模），并在地面站点（当地规模）。为了实现这些目标，我将开发和应用最先进的地球物理技术：基于场的微动方法和理论3D波传播建模。估计地震的影响或后果直接取决于对地震地面震动的估计，这取决于对场地反应和地质放大的理解。这种理解将为一系列旨在估计和减轻潜在地震损失的多学科工作提供信息，这些损失包括人员伤亡，建筑物损坏和系统中断。我的研究计划是了解地震现场反应行为，从而预测地面震动的预期变化，这将通过三个主要目标实现：1.加拿大西部和东部的场地特性研究：将在阿尔伯塔、不列颠哥伦比亚省和安大略进行实地地震测量，以了解加拿大西部和东部土壤放大的差异并给出参数。这一目标将提供一个了解地震现场反应在加拿大的各种地质环境。通过计算方法解决地面运动的不确定性：将对加拿大特定区域的地震进行三维地球模型内地震破裂的数值计算。这些计算模拟将解决目前记录地震数据中的空白，并量化地震地面震动的潜在范围（不确定性）。改进目前的地震现场反应预测器：将根据地震和实地地震测量以及加拿大典型地质环境的计算模拟来确定各种频率（频谱）的地震地面运动幅度。定量的谱放大的不确定性界限，然后可以推导出典型的地质在加拿大西部和东部，以提高我们的理解，地震现场反应和它的处理在未来的建筑规范。准确地预测地震地面运动是重要的生命安全（工程设计准则和规范）和规划（土地使用管理，应急响应，业务连续性，保险费率等）。目的因此，建议的研究是重要的地震工程界，以及科学和应急管理社区。