Improving Earthquake Ground Motion Prediction Across Canada

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There is a lot of uncertainty in earthquake ground motion prediction: How will the earthquake rupture propagate in time and space?, What will be the distribution of earthquake shaking?, Will my building withstand the shaking? The long-term vision of my research program is to improve prediction of earthquake ground shaking across Canada, in particular understanding how earthquake waves are altered as they travel through the earth's geologic layers along their path (regional scale) and at a surface site (local scale). To achieve these goals, I will develop and apply state-of-the-art geophysical techniques: field-based microtremor methods and theoretical 3D wave propagation modelling. Estimating the impact or consequences of an earthquake depends directly on estimates of earthquake ground shaking, which are reliant on understanding site response and geological amplifications. This understanding will inform a range of multi-disciplinary works aimed at estimating and mitigating potential earthquake losses in the forms of casualties, building damage, and system interruptions.My research program to understand earthquake site response behaviour and thereby predict expected variation in ground shaking will be achieved by three main objectives:1. Site characterization studies in western and eastern Canada: Field-based seismic measurements will be performed in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario to understand and parameterize the differences in soil amplification between western and eastern Canada. This objective will provide an understanding of earthquake site response across Canada's varied geologic settings.2. Addressing ground motion uncertainty via computational methods: Numerical computations of earthquake rupture within 3D earth models will be performed for region-specific scenario earthquakes in Canada. These computational simulations will address current gaps in recorded earthquake data and quantify the potential range (uncertainty) of earthquake ground shaking.3. Improving current earthquake site response predictor(s): Earthquake ground motion amplitudes at various frequencies (spectra) will be determined from earthquake and field-based seismic measurements as well as computational simulations for typical Canadian geologic settings. Quantitative uncertainty bounds of spectral amplification may then be derived for typical geology in western and eastern Canada to improve our understanding of earthquake site response and its treatment in future building codes.Accurately predicting earthquake ground motion is important for life-safety (engineering design guidelines and codes) and planning (land use management, emergency response, business continuity, insurance rates, etc.) purposes. Hence, the proposed research is important to the earthquake engineering community, as well as to the scientific and emergency management communities.