Novel Approaches in Statistical Analysis and Coupled Social-Physical Systems Modeling for Integrated and Adaptive Water Resources Management in the Face of Increasing Uncertainty

在加拿大和世界各地的许多地区，城市地区、农业和工业对水资源的质量和数量的压力都在增加，导致可持续水资源管理面临重大挑战。此外，在世界许多地区，气候变化将增加极端事件（如干旱和洪水）的频率，这将对我们的生态系统、水资源、城市地区以及农业和粮食系统等产生重大影响，进而对水和粮食安全产生影响。社区缓解和适应这些复杂问题的能力目前受到许多因素的制约，包括：i)许多流域缺乏有助于支持水资源建模和管理的水资源数据；Ii)在提供非线性和非平稳水资源变量的高度准确预测以及为决策者提供不确定性评估方面的挑战；iii)水资源建模和管理中主要利益相关者缺乏有意义的参与，再加上我们对水资源系统中物理和社会经济活动复杂耦合的知识和建模能力有限。

In many parts of Canada and around the world, pressure on water resources, both in terms of water quality and quantity, from urban areas, agriculture, and industry are increasing, resulting in significant challenges in sustainable water resources management. In addition, in many regions of the world climate change will increase the frequency of extreme events (e.g., droughts and floods), which will have significant impacts on, among other things, our ecosystems, water resources, urban areas, and agricultural and food systems, which in turn will have ramifications on water and food security. The capacity of communities to mitigate against, and adapt to, such complex problems is presently constrained by many factors, including: i) a lack of water resources data in many watersheds that can help support water resources modeling and management; ii) challenges in providing highly accurate forecasts of non-linear and non-stationary water resources variables, and providing uncertainty assessments for decision makers; and iii) a lack of meaningful participation of key stakeholders in water resources modeling and management, coupled with our limited knowledge and modeling ability of the complex coupling of physical and social-economic activities in water resources systems.