Systems modelling for water resources management at the river-basin scale

随着用水需求的增长、供应的变化和劣质的影响变得更加明显，人们越来越认识到需要流域规模的决策支持工具--以参与式方式开发，以便决策者理解和信任这些工具，并能直接使用它们来分析替代政策。尽管目前已有许多复杂的水资源模型，但它们是不同的类型，通常需要相当多的专业知识才能运行，并明确关注河流系统内的水量和水质，或特定部门(农业、工业或市政当局)的细节。作为替代方案，本提案描述了可持续、流域规模的水资源管理的模拟模型，作为1)决策者的探索性工具，他们可以运行多个模型情景，并通过关键指标值的变化快速分析结果，从而提高他们对管理选择及其更广泛的近期和长期影响的理解，2)确定重要研究和政策需求并分配有限资源的范围确定工具。为此，拟议的模式将把三个主要组成部分联系起来：流域的供水及其随时间的变化；用水及其对供水数量和质量的影响；以及通过指标比较替代管理战略的手段。拟议的研究将有助于解决南艾伯塔省弓河流域的下列问题：1.该流域目前的用水需求、供应和质量状况如何，以及人口和当地经济的变化可能如何影响未来的水资源？2.替代管理政策和技术对市政、农业和工业用水和质量、环境和社会经济发展的相对、长期影响是什么？3.个别河流，特别是上游河流的决策如何影响下游？

The need for river basin-scale decision-support tools -- developed in a participatory fashion so that decision-makers understand and trust them and can use them directly in analyzing policy alternatives -- is increasingly recognized as water demands grow, supplies change and the implications of poor quality become clearer. Although many sophisticated water resources models are currently available, they are a different kind that typically requires considerable expertise to operate and focuses explicitly on water quantity and quality within river systems, or on the details of specific sectors (agriculture, industry or municipalities).As an alternative, this proposal describes a simulation model for sustainable, basin-scale management of water resources to serve as 1) an exploratory tool for decision-makers, who can run multiple model scenarios and rapidly analyze the results through changes in the values of key indicators, thereby improving their understanding of management options and their broader near- to long-term effects, and 2) a scoping tool to identify important research and policy needs, and allocate limited resources. To these ends, the proposed model would link three main components: water supply in the basin and its change over time; water uses and their effects on both quantity and quality of the supply; and a means of comparing alternative management strategies through indicators. The proposed research will help to address the following questions for the Bow River basin in Southern Alberta:1. What is the current state of the basin in terms of water demand, supply and quality, and how are changes in population and the local economy likely to affect water resources into the future? 2. What are the relative, longer-term effects of alternative management policies and technologies on municipal, agricultural and industrial water use and quality, the environment and socio-economic development?3. How do decisions in individual, particularly upstream, river reaches affect downstream reaches?