Application of an advanced hydrology-land surface model for improved prediction of Bow River Flows

适当的模拟和预测弓肘河的流量，是卡尔加里市的一个关键需求，以更好地应对城市面临的挑战，特别是在不断变化的气候和景观下。这项任务受到与水文过程表示、参数化和模拟中的不确定性有关的几个挑战的阻碍。在这项研究中，我们的目标是解决这些挑战，并为结束于卡尔加里的弓和肘河流域建立了一个先进的基于物理的水文模型。为此，我们将使用MESH （mod<s:1>环境-表面和水文）建模系统。MESH是加拿大基于物理的分布式模型，它将加拿大陆地表面方案（CLASS）耦合到WATFLOOD水文模型的路由模块。它还包括横向流动的高级水文过程表示。这使得MESH能够解释陆地和大气之间的水和能量平衡，这是该地区（以及一般寒冷地区）充分表现水文过程的关键，在这些地区，水和能量通过相变紧密地联系在一起。我们提出的方法对于弓河和肘河流域的流量预测至关重要，因为它们的流量主要由融雪控制，冻融循环对土壤中水的运动有重大影响。我们亦会考虑影响水流的工程水管理设施，例如水坝、水库和改道。这项工作将使我们能够探索和描述该地区未来流量不确定性的不同来源，因此，将使我们能够改善我们对加拿大寒冷地区水文过程的理解和建模。我们将开发的建模平台预计将为卡尔加里市提供最先进的工具，以改进预测、风险管理和灾害响应，围绕主要基础设施规划、供水和需求管理以及水文气候适应措施的优先级做出决策。

Proper simulation and prediction of Bow and Elbow River flows, is a critical need for The City of Calgary tobetter address challenges facing the city of 1.2 million people particularly, under a changing climate andlandscape. This task is hampered by several challenges pertaining to uncertainties in hydrologic processrepresentation, parametrization, and simulation. In this research, we aim to address these challenges and set upan advanced physically-based hydrological model for the Bow and Elbow River Basins ending at Calgary. Forthis purpose, we will use MESH (Modélisation Environmentale-Surface et Hydrologie) modelling system.MESH is a Canadian distributed physically-based model that couples the Canadian Land Surface Scheme(CLASS) to the routing module of WATFLOOD hydrological model. It also includes an advanced hydrologicalprocess representation of lateral flows. This allows MESH to account for both the water and energy balancebetween land and atmosphere, which is key to adequate hydrologic process representation in this region (andcold regions in general), where water and energy are closely tied together through phase change. Our proposedmethodology is critically important for streamflow prediction in the Bow and Elbow River Basins, becausetheir streamflow is dominated by snowmelt and the freeze and thaw cycles have a significant impact on themovement of water within the soil. We will also take into account engineered water management featuresaffecting the water flow such as dams, reservoirs and diversions. This work will allow us to explore andcharacterize the different sources of uncertainty in the future flows in the region, and consequently, will enableus to improve our hydrologic process understanding and modelling in cold regions of Canada. The modellingplatform we will develop is expected to arm The City of Calgary with a state-of-the-art tool for improvedprediction, risk management and disaster response, decision making around major infrastructure planning,water supply and demand management, and prioritization of hydro-climatic adaptation measures.