Climate Change in the Eastern Arctic

本研究的总体目标是提供以哈德逊湾、福克斯盆地和哈德逊海峡为重点的北极东部地区气候变化影响评估。这项工作结合了北极东部气候条件的基础科学、这些条件的建模以及在执行气候变化影响评估中的应用。海冰支配着北极东部的气候。该地区已经经历了有充分记录的气候变化，并将在未来几十年经历更剧烈的变化。根据这一总体目标提出的研究项目将发展：1)气候数据分析，使我们能够利用细微的气候指标来探测气候变率和变化，特别是适合于气候重建；2)利用聚类分析来评估海冰的空间分布及其潜在的冰动力的技术；3)从耦合气候模式中剔除的一系列海冰状况预估，并通过区域建模和利用当地收集的气候数据进行统计降尺度的增强；4)评估预估的气候变化对当地第一民族和因纽特人社区、区域生物群和自然地理（如永久冻土退化）的影响。******在第一个项目中，几项利用温度细微变化的新技术将用于重建卫星侦察时代（1970年以前）之前的海冰状况，这些技术建立在过去NSERC资助的工作基础上。这将使更长的时间序列成为可能，并有能力梳理出气候系统周期性行为和最近人为引起的气候变化所导致的变化。在第二个项目中，通过对网格海冰数据进行聚类分析，研究了北极东部主要盆地内的海冰动态，这是一种了解海冰如何发展、传播和破裂的新方法，是年度周期的一部分。这也将有助于了解海冰厚度的区域变化。第三个项目更新了气候实验室在2005年发表的开创性工作，该工作通过一套耦合气候模型提供了海冰变化的预测。早期工作的各个方面将得到更新，然后利用区域气候模式的结果和利用统计降尺度产生的预估加以补充。这将提供适合气候变化影响评估的预测，这是第四个研究项目的重点。越来越多的地方社区正在经历气候变化对粮食安全、交通安全、住房基础设施和传统生计的影响。将利用气候变化影响评估框架对这些影响和其他影响进行评估，该框架为适应战略提供必要的工具。

The overarching goal of this research is to provide a climate change impact assessment for the Eastern Arctic region focussing on Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, and Hudson Strait. The work combines the basic science of climate conditions in the Eastern Arctic, the modelling of these conditions and the use of these in performing climate change impact assessments. Sea ice dominates the climate of the Eastern Arctic. This region has already experienced well documented climate change and will experience even more dramatic change over the next few decades. The proposed research projects stemming from this overarching goal will develop: 1) climate data analytics that will enable the detection of climate variability and change using nuanced climate metrics, especially suitable for climate reconstruction, 2) techniques to assess spatial distribution of sea ice and its underlying ice dynamics using cluster analysis, 3) a range of projections of sea ice conditions culled from coupled climate models and augmented by regional modelling and statistical downscaling using locally collected climate data, and 4) assessments of impacts of the projected climate change on local First Nations and Inuit communities, regional biota, and physical geography such as permafrost degradation.******In the first project several novel techniques using nuanced changes in temperature which build on past NSERC funded work will be used to reconstruct sea ice conditions prior to the satellite reconnaissance era (pre-1970). This will enable a longer time series and the ability to tease out changes that are the result of cyclical behaviour in the climate system and those resulting from recent anthropogenically induced climate change. In the second project, sea ice dynamics within the major Eastern Arctic basins are examined by using cluster analysis on gridded sea ice data, a novel approach to understanding how sea ice develops, propagates and breaks up as part of the annual cycle. This will also help in understanding the regional variation of sea ice thickness. The third project updates pioneering work done in the Climate Lab that was published in 2005 that provided projections of sea ice change from a suite of coupled climate models. Aspects of the earlier work will be updated and then augmented using the results of regional climate models and projections generated using statistical downscaling. This will provide projections suitable for climate change impact assessments which is the focus of the fourth research project. Increasingly local communities are experiencing the effects of a changing climate impacting on food security, transportation safety, housing infrastructure and traditional livelihoods. These, and other impacts, will be assessed using a climate change impact assessment framework providing the necessary tools for adaptation strategies.