Analysis of ecological dynamics under environmental change

人为干扰正在重塑我们的自然环境和生活在其中的人口。人类活动正在运输入侵物种并扰乱野生动物疾病的平衡，全球变暖正在改变温度等斜线，原始栖息地的快速工业化正在改变动物的运动模式。这些环境变化带来了新的问题：物种正在转移，它们的遗传组成正在改变，入侵物种正在蔓延，一些野生动物疾病出现在新的地点，出现的频率和强度都在增加，动物运动模式的变化正在改变它们的生态关系和生存能力。*这项研究将了解和评估重大环境问题，这些问题的根本原因是人为干扰。重点将放在需要具有主要量化成分的新模型的问题上，以及有充足数据来检验假设和寻找管理解决方案的问题。次级项目包括：管理入侵物种的传播(预防和及早发现斑马贻贝)，野生动物疾病(控制鲑鱼网中寄生的海虱暴发以及感染动态和鹿种群慢性消耗性疾病的管理)，气候变化下物种分布的变化(包括对遗传多样性的影响以及山松甲虫的管理和进化)，改变动物运动模式及其生态后果(北极熊、狼、大熊猫、黑鲨和虎鲨在环境变化下的运动)。这项研究将为环境生态学发展新的数学理论，将提供加强环境管理的方法，并将开发决策工具。大部分工作将与野外生物学家和政府研究人员合作。这意味着，大多数数学和计算建模工作将对照实地数据进行测试，并将直接与管理政策联系起来。*****

Anthropogenic disturbance is reshaping our natural environment and the populations that live it in. Human activities are transporting invasive species and disturbing the balance in wildlife disease, global warming is shifting temperature isoclines, and rapid industrialization of pristine habitats is changing animal movement patterns. These environmental changes give rise to new problems: species are shifting and their genetic composition is changing, invasive species are spreading, some wildlife diseases are appearing in new locations and with increased frequency and intensity, and changes in animal movement patterns are modifying their ecological relationships and ability to survive. ******This research will understand and evaluate significant environmental problems whose root causes arise from anthropogenic disturbance. The focus will be on problems where there is a need for new models with a major quantitative component and where there are ample data to test hypotheses and look for management solutions. Sub-projects include: managing spread of invasive species (prevention and early detection for zebra mussel), wildlife disease (controlling parasitic sea lice outbreaks in salmon networks and infection dynamics and management of chronic wasting disease in deer populations), shifting species distributions under climate change (including impacts on genetic diversity and management and evolution in mountain pine beetle), changing animal movement patterns and their ecological consequences (polar bear, wolf, giant panda, mako shark, and tiger shark movement under environmental change). The research will develop new mathematical theory for environmental ecology, will provide methods for enhancing environmental stewardship and will develop tools for decision making. Much of the work will be in collaboration with field biologists and government researchers. This means that the majority of the mathematical and computational modelling work will be tested against field data and will be connected directly to management policy. *****