Integrating Polynomial Chaos Expansion Method into DSATools for the Assessment of Probabilistic Available Transfer Capability******

DSATools是一套电力系统分析工具，提供了对系统安全性和稳定性进行完整评估的能力。毫无疑问，DSATools是该领域的领导者，因为它具有丰富的建模能力，先进的计算方法和全面的功能。然而，随着可再生能源（RES）不断向电网渗透，从传统的确定性分析框架转向概率分析框架，以研究各种可再生能源（如风能和太阳能）带来的随机性影响至关重要。事实上，可再生能源的随机性可能会导致电力系统可用输送/传输能力的大幅降低。本课题旨在将多项式混沌展开（PCE）方法与dsattools核心工具集电压安全评估工具（VSAT）相结合，高效、准确地评估电力系统的概率可用传输能力（ATC）。该项目的成果不仅将使dsattools能够方便地将RES世代和负荷的不确定性纳入ATC的评估中，而且还将为用户提供有关ATC的概率特征（均值、方差、概率密度函数等）的基本信息。这些重要的信息将帮助用户以更有效的方式确定ATC，以充分利用输电资产，同时维护电网的安全。****

DSATools is a suite of power system analysis tools providing the capabilities for a complete assessment of system security and stability. DSATools is beyond all doubt a leader in the field because of its rich modelling capabilities, advanced computational methods, and comprehensive features. However, as the renewable energy sources (RES) continue penetrating into the power grid, it is of paramount importance to move from the conventional deterministic analysis framework to a probabilistic one so as to investigate the impacts of randomness brought about by various RES (e.g., wind and solar). Indeed, the randomness of RES may result in a big reduction in the available delivery/transfer capability of a power system. This project aims to integrate the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method with the Voltage Security Assessment Tool (VSAT), a core toolset of DSATools, to assess the probabilistic available transfer capability (ATC) of power systems efficiently and accurately. The outcomes of the project will not only enable DSATools to conveniently incorporate the uncertainty of RES generations and loads into the assessment of ATC, but also provide the users with essential information about the probabilistic characteristics (mean, variance, probabilistic density function, etc.) of ATC. Such important information will assist the users in determining the ATC in a more efficient manner to fully utilize the transmission assets while maintaining the security of the grid.****