Selection of optimal design alternatives under conditions of uncertainty in underground hard rock mine valuation studies through assessment of strategic robustness tooperating risk

这项工作的重点是由运营风险驱动的，而不是市场或矿体的不确定性，通过长期计划，使用现金流风险模拟来探索多变量系统中运营设计备选方案的稳健性。在日益激烈的竞争和不确定性的世界里，战略适应性越来越被认为是企业成功的关键。健壮性指的是操作系统在正常条件下表现良好，但在强调设计者假设的不寻常条件下也能正常运行。与下游矿石加工不同，加拿大矿业有改善业绩预测的空间，以增强竞争力。项目估值研究需要与底线产出项目价值挂钩的风险评估。在地下矿山的经营中，人们已经认识到，在信息有限的约束下，最大的节约空间是在规划项目评估的早期阶段。一旦破土动工，随着矿山的成熟，可用的替代方案将呈指数级减少。多变量设计约束、问题变量的相互依赖以及确定输入变量分布的不确定性是为预测情景建立最优策略的挑战。运营的不确定性需要通过引入替代方案来平衡，这些替代方案在设计上引入了质量和灵活性。拟议的工作满足了行业在矿山可行性和权衡研究中增加设计稳健性的迫切需求，以适应不确定的运营条件。该项目将产生一种评估运营风险的方法，通过评估时间、成本和采矿收入变量对项目底线的影响，通过动态随机风险模拟，探索必要的、灵活的和高质量的替代方案。

The focus of this work is driven by operating risk, as opposed to market or orebody uncertainty, to explore, using cash flow risk simulation, the robustness of operating design alternatives in a multivariable system through the long-range plan. In a world of widening competition and uncertainty, strategic adaptability is being increasingly recognized as critical to corporate success. Robustness refers to an operating system that performs adequately under ordinary conditions, but also under unusual conditions that stress the designers' assumptions. Unlike downstream ore processing, the Canadian Mining Industry has room to improve its performance forecasts, in order to enhance its competitiveness. A project valuation study requires risk assessment that links to bottom-line output project values. It has been realized in operating underground mines that the greatest scope for savings is presented during the early planning project valuation stage, under the constraint of limited information. Once ground is broken, the available alternatives diminish exponentially as the mine matures. Multivariable design constraints, the interdependence of problem variables and the uncertainty in determining the distribution of input variables are the challenges in building optimal strategies for forecasted scenarios. Operating uncertainty needs to be counterbalanced through the introduction of alternatives that introduce quality, and flexibility, in design.The proposed work addresses the acute need of the industry to increase the design robustness in mine feasibility and trade-off studies, for adaptability to uncertain operating conditions. The project will produce a valuation operating risk methodology for exploring essential flexible and quality alternatives through dynamic stochastic risk simulation by assessing the impact of time, cost, and mine revenue variables on a project's bottom line.