Managing future risk and interdependency in urban systems

危险的气候变化和环境退化已成为全球性挑战，需要向更可持续的城市过渡。我们的城市系统由基础设施网络组成，人类活动占全球碳排放量的一半以上，因此对可持续发展发挥着至关重要的作用。*城市系统和相关的基础设施网络对现代经济活动至关重要，但也是能源和资源消耗、碳排放和环境污染的主要来源。从历史上看，城市基础设施的规划和投资是逐个部门进行的，但由于越来越多地使用信息技术、跨部门需求上升和气候政策，基础设施正变得更加相互依存。基础设施老化、来自社会和经济压力的日益增长的需求以及物质上的相互依存的综合影响可能会增加风险、脆弱性和失败。*未来城市人口的增长还将要求所有行业大规模建设基础设施，从而加剧环境影响。由于高资本成本和外部性，基础设施的排放特别容易被锁定。在全球范围内，以化石燃料为基础的城市基础设施的持续扩张可能会在21世纪剩余时间内产生累积排放，导致大气中二氧化碳浓度达到危险水平。*尽管存在这些挑战，但人们对缓解气候变化和满足日益增长的需求的战略投资将如何影响基础设施系统的长期技术、经济和环境表现知之甚少。这项研究计划将开发新的系统理论、方法和下一代计算决策支持工具，为未来城市的规划、工程和管理提供信息。*该计划将有助于高级HQP技术培训，并有助于将加拿大定位为城市系统科学和工程领域的研究领先者。这些发现将直接有益于城市规划者、工程师和行业管理他们的风险投资组合。重要的是，该计划将提供科学证据，为更可持续的长期基础设施投资决策提供信息，为加拿大政府带来潜在的重大经济利益，改善公民的生计和福祉，以及产业和加拿大知识经济的竞争力。

Dangerous climate change and environmental degradation have emerged as global challenges requiring a transition to more sustainable cities. Our urban systems are composed of infrastructure networks, and human activity responsible for over half of global carbon emissions thus playing a vital role for sustainability.***Urban systems and related infrastructure networks are vital for modern economic activity but are also major sources of energy and resource consumption, carbon emissions, and environmental pollution. Historically, planning and investment for urban infrastructure provision has been done sector-by-sector, but infrastructure is becoming more interdependent due to increasing use of information technology, rising cross-sector demands and climate policy. The combined effects of ageing infrastructure, growing demand from social and economic pressures, and physical interdependency can increase risk, vulnerability and failure. ***Future urban population growth will also require a massive build-up of infrastructure across all sectors compounding environmental impacts. Due to high capital costs and externalities, emissions from infrastructure are especially prone to lock-in. Globally, the continued expansion of fossil fuel-based urban infrastructure could produce cumulative emissions during the remainder of the 21st century leading to dangerous atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. ***Despite these challenges, little is known about how strategic investments to mitigate climate change and meet increasing demand, will influence the long-term technical, economic and environmental performance of infrastructure systems. This research program will develop new systems theory, methods and next generation computational decision-support tools to inform planning, engineering and management of future cities. ***This program will contribute to advanced HQP technical training and help position Canada as a research leader in the field of urban systems science and engineering. The findings will be of direct benefit to urban planners, engineers, and industry in managing their risk portfolios. Importantly, this program will provide the scientific evidence to inform more sustainable long-term infrastructure investment decisions, with potentially significant economic benefits for the Canadian government, enhanced livelihoods and well-being for citizens, and competitiveness of industry and the Canadian knowledge economy.**