The influence of climate on species' geographic distributions and interactions.

由于过去二十年的大量努力，现在有许多关于物种如何应对气候变化的记录案例。然而，我们对这些反应的机制的理解仍然有限，许多关键过程在预测建模中经常被忽略。如果不考虑驱动物种对气候变化作出反应的机制，这些反应对群落和生态系统的潜在后果很难准确预测。我的研究计划的长期目标是实现对物种相互作用和地理分布结构的生态和进化过程的机械理解。我的目的是利用这项研究更准确地预测相互作用的物种如何对环境变化做出反应。在接下来的五年里，我提出了两个新的组成部分，作为我的研究计划的一部分，它们将整合机械和现象学方法，以满足两个短期目标：1)确定季节时间（物候学）对构建物种北部范围限制的影响；2)理清气候变化对植物及其昆虫食草动物的直接和间接影响（即物种相互作用）的相对重要性。我在与这些目标相关的两个领域取得了重大进展。例如，我的工作是对物种分布模型在预测物种未来范围变化和理解范围限制等基本生态学概念方面的实际效用和局限性的重要实证论证。我的工作也促进了我们对温度对营养相互作用的影响的理解。***为了实现第一个目标，我将在跨越蝴蝶（Papilio cresphontes）北部边缘的纬度梯度上整合易位、变暖和实验室实验，并使用历史数据进行生态建模。为了满足第二个目标，将进行一系列操纵非生物和生物因素的析因实验室和温室实验。来自安大略省渥太华的普通乳草（Asclepias syriaca）及其一些食草昆虫将成为目标物种（例如Danaus plexippus， Aphis spp, Oncopeltus spp）。总之，这项研究将有助于i)推进生态过程如何受到环境变化影响的基本知识；Ii)测试物种相互作用在物种对环境变化的响应中的作用；iii)产生关于物种对气候变化脆弱性的机械支持预测。

As a result of substantial effort over the past two decades, there are now many documented cases of how species are responding to climate change. However, our understanding of the mechanisms underlying these responses remains limited and many key processes are often ignored in predictive modelling. Without considering the mechanisms that drive species responses to climate change, the potential consequences of these responses for communities and ecosystems are difficult to accurately predict. The long-term goal of my research program is to achieve a mechanistic understanding of the ecological and evolutionary processes that structure species interactions and geographic distributions. My aim is to use this research to more accurately predict how interacting species respond to environmental change. For the next five years, I propose two new components as part of my research program that will integrate mechanistic and phenomenological approaches to meet two short-term objectives: 1) determine the effect of seasonal timing (phenology) on structuring species northern range limits and 2) disentangle the relative importance of direct and indirect effects (i.e. species interactions) of climate change on plants and their insect herbivores. I have made significant progress in the two areas that are related to these goals. For example, my work is an important empirical demonstration of the practical utilities and limitations of species distribution models in predicting species' future range shifts and understanding fundamental ecological concepts such as range limits. My work has also advanced our understanding of temperature effects on trophic interactions.***To meet the first objective, I will integrate translocation, warming, and lab experiments across a latitudinal gradient spanning the northern range edge of a butterfly (Papilio cresphontes), with ecological modeling using historical data. To meet the second objective, a series of factorial lab and greenhouse experiments that manipulate both abiotic and biotic factors will be carried out. Common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca) and some of its insect herbivores from Ottawa, ON will be target species (e.g. Danaus plexippus, Aphis spp., Oncopeltus spp.). Together, this research will help to i) advance basic knowledge of how ecological processes are influenced by environmental change; ii) test the role of species interactions in species responses to environmental change; and iii) generate mechanistically supported predictions about species' vulnerabilities to climate change.