Scientific foundations for boreal conservation

我解决三个挑战，加拿大的北方森林的保护规划和可持续管理：预测未来的火灾制度，预测森林的未来状态，并开发计算机化的工具，或模拟模型，使这些预测在大面积和时间跨度的一个或两个世纪。** 保护区网络设计考虑到我们对火灾状况的理解，即对给定区域典型火灾的数量、规模和其他特征的统计描述。预测未来的气候和森林结构可能与今天不同是很困难的，因为我们的历史信息是不完整的。在加拿大的许多地方，直到最近，大多数小火灾都没有被发现。这种“有大小偏差的抽样”可能导致气候和植被对有关结果的影响的严重错误的模型。类似地，灭火效果也可能使我们的模型产生偏差，同时在重要方面改变森林。统计方法可以同时考虑所有这些因素，从而产生无偏的模型，可以做出可靠的预测。 ** 森林动态模型经常使用分类的卫星数据来描述森林的初始状态，如老的或年轻的，落叶的或针叶的。 显然，同一个位置不会永远保持在同一个状态。 森林随着时间的推移通过“演替”和再生而发生变化，例如火灾后。这些过程可以概括为“状态转换规则”，可以通过计算机模拟;不幸的是，我们没有一个非常清楚的了解规则是什么，迄今为止，更多地依赖于专家的意见，而不是定量分析来设置计算机模型的参数。现在可以做得更好，因为我们现在可以为加拿大全国建立相当长的卫星图像时间序列，例如1990年、2000年和2010年。这是一个足够长的时期，因此应该可以通过仔细比较三张地图来估计和模拟转移概率。随着管理和火灾继续在整个北方地区展开，这将能够更可靠地预测未来的森林状况。这样做构成了本提案的第二条腿。*本提案的第三部分涉及将前两部分的结果与外部在模拟森林鸣禽、水禽和驯鹿丰度以及保护区规划方面所做的大量努力的结果相结合。这一综合将通过继续开发一些已建立的模拟工具来进行;目标是预测气候、森林管理和养护活动将如何影响到世纪北方森林及其野生生物的未来状况。这样的工具将使我们能够考虑到未来进行管理，并尽可能实现加拿大人所希望的结果。

I address three challenges for conservation planning and sustainable management of Canada's boreal forests: predicting future fire regimes, predicting the future state of the forest, and developing computerized tools, or simulation models, to make these predictions over large areas and time spans of one or two centuries. ******Protected areas network designs take account of our understanding of fire regime, that is, of statistical descriptions of the number, size, and other characteristics of the fires typical of a given area. Forecasts into a future where climate and forest structure may be different than they are today is difficult, because our historical information in incomplete. In many parts of Canada, up until very recently, most small fires were not detected. This "size-biased sampling" can lead to seriously incorrect models of the effects of climate and vegetation on the outcomes of interest. Similarly, fire suppression effects may also bias our models, while at the same time changing the forest in important ways. Statistical methods can account for all these factors simultaneously, leading to unbiased models that can make reliable forecasts. ******Models of forest dynamics often use classified satellite data to describe the initial state of the forest, as being old or young, deciduous or coniferous. Obviously, the same location does not stay in the same state forever. Forests change over time through "succession" and regeneration, for example after a fire. These processes can be summarised as "state transition rules" that can be simulated by computer; unfortunately, we do not have a very clear understanding of what the rules are, and to date have relied more on expert opinion than on quantitative analysis to set parameters for computer models. It is now possible to do better, because we can now build reasonably long time series of satellite imagery for all of Canada, e.g. for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. That is a long enough period so that it should be possible to estimate and model transition probabilities by careful comparison of the three maps. This would enable more reliable projections of future forest conditions as management and fire continue to unfold across the boreal. Doing so forms the second leg of this proposal.******The third part of this proposal involves synthesising the results of the previous two parts with the results of substantial external efforts in modelling forest songbirds, waterfowl and caribou abundances, and in protected areas planning. This synthesis will take place by continuing the development of some established modelling tools; the objective is to project how climate, forest management and conservation activities will affect the future state of the boreal forest and its wildlife into the 22nd century. Tools like this will enable us to manage with the future in mind and to achieve, as far as possible, the outcomes preferred by Canadians.