Spatial and Non-Spatial Timber Market Models and Game Theoretic Models of Sustainable Forest Management

加拿大在森林管理方面发挥着领导作用，从持续收获木材管理向可持续森林管理过渡。在可持续森林管理中，其他生态系统服务，如生物多样性，与木材一样重要，需要纳入利益攸关方的价值观。在安大略省，发生了两个重要的变化。首先，设立一个地方公民委员会，协助森林管理计划的编制和执行，已成为一项法定要求。第二，该省正在认真努力，与原住民达成森林共同管理安排。此外，由于新兴的国际贸易制度，加拿大正在探索传统合作伙伴以外的新的木材市场。因此，为了建立健全的森林管理概念和理论基础，迫切需要发展：(1)充分了解全球木材市场；(2)纳入不同利益攸关方之间互动的森林管理模式，如LCC成员；(3)分析不同利益攸关方之间偏好和互动动态的演变模型。在这个项目中，我们将开发三种类型的模型。首先，我们将建立中国木材市场的非空间和空间模型。中国木材拍卖的组织形式与北美不同，了解和分析中国的木材拍卖活动，对于建立与中国的木材贸易制度至关重要。其次，我们将模拟LCC成员在产权不确定的背景下参与森林经营规划的情况。我们将为不同群体的LCC成员、具有商业性、非商业性(如娱乐)和更广泛的环境利益的成员以及地方政府开发四种模式。我们将为每组建立一个三阶段两人博弈模型。在第一阶段，计划作者选择计划期间的收割区。在第二阶段，计划制定者和LCC成员就双方同意的计划进行讨价还价，并拥有内生的讨价还价立场。我们将建立模型，成员的预订效用取决于第三阶段博弈的结果，在第三阶段博弈中，每个参与者都可能试图获得事实上的财产权。第三，我们将开发包含偏好演变的博弈论模型。这些模式将用于原住民(FNS)与自然资源部(MNR)、FNS与森工、以及FNS、森工与自然资源部之间的共同管理协定。我们将利用所有模型的结果来提出与政策和森林管理相关的建议。将培训三名博士、三名硕士和三名本科生；将发表11篇推荐性论文和6份政策/管理简报，并将发表14次会议报告。将举办三个用户讲习班。该计划将对SFM范式作出重要的概念、理论和应用贡献。**

Canada is playing a leading role in forest management transitioning from sustained yield timber management (SYTM) to sustainable forest management (SFM). In SFM, other ecosystem services, such as biodiversity, are as important as timber and requires the incorporation of stakeholders' values. In Ontario, two important changes have occurred. First, the establishment of a Local Citizens Committee (LCC), to assist the author of forest management plan in its preparation and implementation, has become a statutory requirement. Second, the province is making serious efforts to have forest co-management arrangements with First Nations peoples. In addition, due to emerging international trade regimes, Canada is exploring new timber markets beyond the traditional partner. Hence, for sound conceptual and theoretical foundations of SFM, there is urgent need to develop: (i) a full understanding of global timber markets; (ii) forest management models that incorporate interactions among different stakeholders, such as LCC members; and (iii) evolutionary models to analyze the dynamics of preferences and interactions between different stakeholders. In this program, we will develop three types of models. First, we will develop non-spatial and spatial models for timber markets in China. The organization of timber auctions in China is different compared to North America and therefore it is critical to understand and analyze timber auctions of China for establishing the timber-trade regime with China. Second, we will model the participation of LCC members in forest management planning in the context of their uncertain property rights. We will develop four models for different groups of LCC members members with commercial, non-commercial such as recreation, and broader environmental interests, and local governments. We will develop a three-stage two-player game theoretic model for each group. In the first stage, the plan author selects harvesting areas over the planning period. In the second stage, the plan author and the LCC members bargain over a mutually agreed plan with endogenous bargaining positions. We will model that the reservation utilities of members depend on the outcome of a third-stage game where each player may attempt to get de facto property rights. Third, we will develop game-theoretic models that will incorporate the evolution of preferences. These models will be for co-management agreements, between First Nations (FNs) and the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), FNs and forest industry, and FNs, forest industry, and MNR. We will use all models' results to make policy and forest management related recommendations. Three Ph.D., 3 M. Sc., and 3 undergraduate students will be trained; 11 refereed papers and 6 policy/ management briefs will be published, and 14 conference presentations will be made. Three user workshops will be organized. The program will make important conceptual, theoretical, and applied contributions to the SFM paradigm. **