Analysis of ecological dynamics under environmental change

人为干扰正在重塑我们的自然环境和生活在其中的人口。 人类活动正在传播入侵物种，破坏野生动物疾病的平衡，全球变暖正在改变温度等线，原始栖息地的快速工业化正在改变动物的运动模式。这些环境变化引起了新的问题：物种正在转移，其遗传组成正在改变，入侵物种正在蔓延，一些野生动物疾病出现在新的地点，频率和强度增加，动物运动模式的变化正在改变它们的生态关系和生存能力。 ** 本研究将了解和评估其根本原因来自人为干扰的重大环境问题。 重点将放在需要有主要数量组成部分的新模式和有充足数据来检验假设和寻找管理解决办法的问题上。次级项目包括：控制入侵物种的扩散（斑马贻贝的预防和早期发现）、野生动物疾病（控制鲑鱼网络中寄生海虱的爆发和鹿种群中慢性消耗病的感染动态和管理），气候变化下的物种分布变化（包括对山地松甲虫遗传多样性和管理及进化的影响），不断变化的动物运动模式及其生态后果（北极熊、狼、大熊猫、灰鲭鲨和虎鲨在环境变化下的运动）。 这项研究将为环境生态学开发新的数学理论，为加强环境管理提供方法，并开发决策工具。 大部分工作将与实地生物学家和政府研究人员合作。这意味着大多数数学和计算建模工作将根据实地数据进行测试，并将直接与管理政策联系起来。*****

Anthropogenic disturbance is reshaping our natural environment and the populations that live it in. Human activities are transporting invasive species and disturbing the balance in wildlife disease, global warming is shifting temperature isoclines, and rapid industrialization of pristine habitats is changing animal movement patterns. These environmental changes give rise to new problems: species are shifting and their genetic composition is changing, invasive species are spreading, some wildlife diseases are appearing in new locations and with increased frequency and intensity, and changes in animal movement patterns are modifying their ecological relationships and ability to survive. ******This research will understand and evaluate significant environmental problems whose root causes arise from anthropogenic disturbance. The focus will be on problems where there is a need for new models with a major quantitative component and where there are ample data to test hypotheses and look for management solutions. Sub-projects include: managing spread of invasive species (prevention and early detection for zebra mussel), wildlife disease (controlling parasitic sea lice outbreaks in salmon networks and infection dynamics and management of chronic wasting disease in deer populations), shifting species distributions under climate change (including impacts on genetic diversity and management and evolution in mountain pine beetle), changing animal movement patterns and their ecological consequences (polar bear, wolf, giant panda, mako shark, and tiger shark movement under environmental change). The research will develop new mathematical theory for environmental ecology, will provide methods for enhancing environmental stewardship and will develop tools for decision making. Much of the work will be in collaboration with field biologists and government researchers. This means that the majority of the mathematical and computational modelling work will be tested against field data and will be connected directly to management policy. *****