Arctic lakes: Past and Future Changes

加拿大北极地区正经历着气候、平均温度、极端温度和降水的快速变化。气温和降水的变化将在未来几十年继续。这种变暖已经导致了灌木在北极苔原上的扩张和森林的变化。然而，这种变化对积雪、永久冻土、湖泊和河流的影响知之甚少，我们目前预测未来变化的能力有限。水文的变化，包括积雪、湖泊水位和河流流量，将影响社会的许多方面。例如，积雪的变化会影响雪地摩托进入陆地的途径，并影响湖泊冰盖。湖泊水位和河流流量的变化将影响北方人及其穿越陆地的能力，以及水生生态系统的各个方面，再次产生社会影响。最后，水资源的变化对城镇和村庄的供水产生了影响，并影响了北方资源项目开发的可用水性。例如，湖泊通常是冬季建筑工程的重要水源。水资源项目的设计依赖于对过去条件的了解。考虑到气候的迅速变化，过去不再是未来湖泊水位、河流流量或极端事件重现期的可靠指标。因此，迫切需要了解过去的水文变化，并改进水文模型来估计未来水资源的变化。该研究计划将通过开展观测和分析来解决这些问题，以提高我们对北极湖泊水文的理解；测试和改进用于北极的预测模型，并利用这些数据和模型来了解气候变化、植被和永久冻土对加拿大北极水文的综合影响。我们将向加拿大北部提供这些信息，使他们能够就气候变化和北部资源开发作出明智的决定。

The Canadian Arctic is undergoing rapid changes in climate, in average temperature, temperature extremes, and precipitation. Changes in temperature and precipitation will continue over the coming decades. This warming is already resulting in the expansion of shrubs across the Arctic tundra and changes in forest. However, the impact of this change on the snow cover, permafrost, lakes and streamflow are poorly understood, and we currently have limited ability to predict future changes. Changes in the hydrology, including snow cover, lake levels and streamflow, will impact many aspects of society. For example, changes in snow cover impact access to the land by snowmobile and affect lake ice cover. Changes in lake levels and streamflow will impact northerners and their ability to travel across the land, and all aspects of the aquatic ecosystem, again with societal implications. And finally, changes in water resources have impacts on water supply to towns and villages, and impacts water availability for the development of northern resources projects. Lakes for example are often important water supplies for winter construction projects. Water resource projects depend on knowledge of past conditions to design the project. Given a rapidly changing climate, the past is no longer a reliable indicator of future lake levels, streamflow or the return period of extreme events. As a result, there is an urgent need to understand past changes in hydrology and for improved hydrologic models to estimate future changes in water resources. This research program will address these issues by carrying out observations and analysis required to improve our understanding of the hydrology of arctic lakes; test and improve predictive models for use in the arctic, and to use these data and models to understand the integrated impact of changing climate, vegetation and permafrost on the hydrology of the Canadian Arctic. We will provide this information to northern Canadians in order to allow them to make informed decisions concerning both changing climate and northern resource development.