Prediction of extreme hydrologic events at gauged and ungauged locations under climate change conditions

洪水和干旱等极端水文事件与严重的经济和社会影响有关。因此，对这类事件进行适当的估计和预测是非常重要的。这些估算用于防洪和水工建筑物的设计和运行，如大坝、溢洪道、堰或改道工程。当地水文频率分析将极端水文事件的大小与其发生频率联系起来，通常用于在有水文数据时估计与特定重现期相对应的洪水分位数。在数据很少或没有数据的地点，通常使用区域频率分析来估计极端水文事件。该研究计划的短期目标是：1)在当地和区域水文频率分析工具中整合有关气候变异性(固有的年际变化)和变化(长期趋势)的信息；2)使当地和区域水文频率模型能够考虑水文事件的多变量性质；以及3)适当地处理当地和区域水文频率模型中的水文现象的非线性。该研究计划的长期目标是提高我们对极端水文事件的了解，并制定一个综合了上述所有要素的风险评估总体框架。 拟议的研究将导致有关极端水文现象的新科学知识的发展，以及一套用于水工建筑物设计和运行的尖端实用工程工具。将开发的知识和工具将有助于提高水资源管理者的决策能力，从而减少公众对自然灾害风险的暴露，并减少与开发和运营昂贵的水利工程相关的成本。拟议的研究计划将有助于培训大量高素质的人员，他们将在未来为学术研究实验室、水电公用事业、处理水资源的联邦和省级机构以及私营咨询公司的活动做出贡献。这些发展将为水资源管理者和加拿大带来切实的经济利益。

Extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, are associated with serious economic and social impacts. The adequate estimation and prediction of such events is hence of high importance. These estimates are used for the design and operation of flood protection and hydraulic structures, such as dams, spillways, weirs or diversion works. Local hydrological frequency analysis relates the magnitude of extreme hydrological events to their frequency of occurrence, and is commonly used for the estimation of flood quantiles corresponding to specific return periods when hydrological data is available. At sites where little or no data are available, regional frequency analysis is commonly used for the estimation of extreme hydrological events. The short term objectives of this research program are 1) to integrate information concerning climate variability (inherent inter-annual modulations) and change (long term trends) in local and regional hydrological frequency analysis tools; 2) to allow local and regional hydrological frequency models to take into consideration the multivariate nature of hydrological events, and 3) to properly handle the non-linearities in hydrological phenomena in local and regional hydrological frequency models. The long term objective of the research program is to improve our knowledge about extreme hydrological events and to develop a general framework for risk estimation that integrates all the elements listed above. The proposed research will lead to the development of new scientific knowledge concerning extreme hydrological phenomena and a set of cutting-edge practical engineering tools for the design and operation of hydraulic structures. The knowledge and tools to be developed will serve to improve decision-making capabilities by water resources managers, decreasing hence public exposure to natural hazard risks and reducing the costs associated with the development and operation of costly hydraulic structures. The proposed research program will contribute to the training of a large number of highly qualified personnel who will contribute in the future to the activities of academic research labs, hydroelectric utilities, federal and provincial agencies dealing with water resources, and private consulting firms. These developments will provide tangible economic benefits to water resources managers and to Canada.