Spatial and Non-Spatial Timber Market Models and Game Theoretic Models of Sustainable Forest Management

加拿大在森林管理从持续产量木材管理（SYTM）过渡到可持续森林管理（SFM）方面发挥着主导作用。在森林森林管理中，生物多样性等其他生态系统服务与木材一样重要，需要纳入利益相关者的价值观。在安大略省，发生了两个重要的变化。首先，成立一个地方公民委员会（LCC），协助森林管理计划的作者编制和执行，这已成为一项法定要求。第二，该省正在作出认真的努力，与第一民族作出共同管理森林的安排。此外，由于新兴的国际贸易体制，加拿大正在探索超越传统伙伴的新的木材市场。因此，为了建立健全的森林管理概念和理论基础，迫切需要：(i)充分了解全球木材市场；（ii）纳入不同利益相关者（如LCC成员）之间相互作用的森林管理模式；（三）分析不同利益相关者之间偏好和互动动态的进化模型。在这个程序中，我们将开发三种类型的模型。一是发展中国木材市场的非空间模型和空间模型。中国的木材拍卖组织与北美不同，因此了解和分析中国的木材拍卖对于建立与中国的木材贸易制度至关重要。其次，我们将模拟LCC成员在其不确定的产权背景下参与森林管理规划的情况。我们将为LCC成员的不同群体开发四种模式商业、非商业（如娱乐、更广泛的环境利益）和地方政府。我们将为每个群体建立一个三阶段的二人博弈理论模型。在第一阶段，规划作者选择规划期内的收获区域。在第二阶段，计划作者和LCC成员就双方同意的计划进行讨价还价。我们将模拟成员的保留效用取决于第三阶段博弈的结果，在第三阶段博弈中，每个参与者都可能试图获得事实上的产权。第三，我们将开发包含偏好演变的博弈论模型。这些模式将用于原住民（FNs）与自然资源部（MNR）、原住民与森林工业、原住民与森林工业与MNR之间的共同管理协议。我们将利用所有模型的结果来制定政策和森林管理相关的建议。培养博士3人，硕士3人，本科生3人；将出版11篇论文和6篇政策/管理简报，并在会议上作14次发言。将组织三个用户讲习班。该计划将对SFM范式做出重要的概念、理论和应用贡献。

Canada is playing a leading role in forest management transitioning from sustained yield timber management (SYTM) to sustainable forest management (SFM). In SFM, other ecosystem services, such as biodiversity, are as important as timber and requires the incorporation of stakeholders' values. In Ontario, two important changes have occurred. First, the establishment of a Local Citizens Committee (LCC), to assist the author of forest management plan in its preparation and implementation, has become a statutory requirement. Second, the province is making serious efforts to have forest co-management arrangements with First Nations peoples. In addition, due to emerging international trade regimes, Canada is exploring new timber markets beyond the traditional partner. Hence, for sound conceptual and theoretical foundations of SFM, there is urgent need to develop: (i) a full understanding of global timber markets; (ii) forest management models that incorporate interactions among different stakeholders, such as LCC members; and (iii) evolutionary models to analyze the dynamics of preferences and interactions between different stakeholders. In this program, we will develop three types of models. First, we will develop non-spatial and spatial models for timber markets in China. The organization of timber auctions in China is different compared to North America and therefore it is critical to understand and analyze timber auctions of China for establishing the timber-trade regime with China. Second, we will model the participation of LCC members in forest management planning in the context of their uncertain property rights. We will develop four models for different groups of LCC members members with commercial, non-commercial such as recreation, and broader environmental interests, and local governments. We will develop a three-stage two-player game theoretic model for each group. In the first stage, the plan author selects harvesting areas over the planning period. In the second stage, the plan author and the LCC members bargain over a mutually agreed plan with endogenous bargaining positions. We will model that the reservation utilities of members depend on the outcome of a third-stage game where each player may attempt to get de facto property rights. Third, we will develop game-theoretic models that will incorporate the evolution of preferences. These models will be for co-management agreements, between First Nations (FNs) and the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), FNs and forest industry, and FNs, forest industry, and MNR. We will use all models' results to make policy and forest management related recommendations. Three Ph.D., 3 M. Sc., and 3 undergraduate students will be trained; 11 refereed papers and 6 policy/ management briefs will be published, and 14 conference presentations will be made. Three user workshops will be organized. The program will make important conceptual, theoretical, and applied contributions to the SFM paradigm.