Interplay between summer and winter climate change in reshaping marine biodiversity

在夏季（如热浪和低氧事件）和冬季（寒流）同时发生有害条件的年份，极端环境在不同季节的强烈波动可能对物种构成双重危险。例如，对于那些通过降低新陈代谢率而不是进食来越冬的物种来说，丰富的夏天对生存严酷的冬天至关重要。同样，在冬季保持活动需要足够的食物资源来满足过冬所需的能量。严酷的冬季和随后的夏季对生理上的要求或对摄食施加限制可能导致个体死亡和种群下降。然而，尽管冬季气候变化在寒冷月份持续半年以上的地区的作用是一种明显的力量，有可能重塑生物多样性，但气候变化生态学领域的重点是温度升高的生物影响，通常是在一年中最温暖的月份。我的研究计划将通过将冬季气候变化的信号纳入野外工作、实验和模型，解决我们对气候变化如何影响个体生理以塑造生物多样性变化的理解上的这一差距。我预测，能量限制和死亡率将在连续的严冬和夏季表现得最为强烈，这反过来将导致人口和社区在空间和时间上发生最强烈的变化。为了测试季节条件和生物多样性模式之间的相互作用，我的程序将操纵暴露于环境参数的大小和持续时间，量化生理极限，并提供数据来建立能量预算，人口和营养网模型。模型预测将根据实地调查数据和实验结果进行检验。这套方法将转化为以下能力：(1)量化不同季节的时间生物多样性格局；(2)从第一性原理预测极端事件不同季节模式下生物多样性的时空变化；(3)发展理论和工具，在生理、种群、群落和生态系统尺度之间建立桥梁。我们将重点关注那些最容易受到气候变化影响并发挥关键群落作用的分类群，包括顶级捕食者（海鸟）、栖息地形成者（海藻和海绵）、具有文化和经济价值的分类群（大西洋鳕鱼和龙虾）或具有负面影响的分类群（入侵绿蟹）。通过确定季节性趋势作为生物反应的关键气候变化驱动因素，我们将为渔业、重要生态系统脆弱性预测和物种入侵提供具有重要意义的见解。我实验室的研究将引领气候变化生态学领域，将生理模型与自然界的生物多样性模式联系起来，揭示季节动态的变化，特别是冬季条件，是如何改变加拿大及其他地区的海洋生物多样性模式的。

Strong swings in environmental extremes across seasons may pose a double jeopardy to species in years when detrimental conditions occur in both summer (such as heat waves and low oxygen events) and winter (cold spells). For instance, in species that overwinter by reducing their metabolic rate instead of feeding, bountiful summers are critical to surviving harsh winters. Likewise, remaining active during the winter requires adequate food resources to meet the energy required to withstand the winter season. Harsh winters followed by summers that are physiologically demanding or impose constraints on feeding may result in the death of individuals and population decline. Yet although the role of winter climate change in regions where cold months persist for more than half the year is an obvious force with potential to reshape biodiversity, the field of climate change ecology has focused on the biological impacts of increasing temperature, often in the warmest months of the year. My research program will tackle this gap in our understanding of how climate change influences individual physiology to shape biodiversity change by incorporating signals of winter climate change into field work, experiments and models. I predict energetic constraints and mortality will manifest most strongly during consecutive harsh winters and summers, which in turn will lead to the strongest changes in populations and communities in both space and time. To test for an interplay between seasonal conditions and biodiversity patterns, my program will manipulate the magnitude and duration of exposure to environmental parameters, quantify physiological limits, and provide the data to build energy budget, population and trophic web models. Model predictions will be tested against field survey data and experimental outcomes. This suite of approaches will translate to a capacity to (1) quantify temporal biodiversity patterns in different seasons; (2) project biodiversity change under different seasonal patterns of extreme events in space and time from first principles; and (3) develop theory and tools to bridge physiological, population, community and ecosystem scales. Our focus will be on taxa that are most vulnerable to climate change and play key community roles including top predators (seabirds), habitat-formers (seaweeds and sponges), those with cultural and economic value (Atlantic cod and lobster) or negative impacts (invasive green crab). By identifying seasonal trends as key climate-change drivers of biological responses, we will provide insights with significance for fisheries, predictions for the vulnerability of important ecosystems, and species invasions. My lab's research will lead the field of climate-change ecology by linking physiological models to biodiversity patterns in nature to reveal how changing seasonal dynamics, particularly winter conditions, are altering marine biodiversity patterns in Canada and beyond.