Adaptive, Multimodal Planning of Long-Distance Transportation Systems

气候变化的影响使长期交通规划变得更加复杂，既有缓慢发生的，也有急剧发生的。我们如何支持有关交通基础设施投资和网络使用的决策，以适应这些变化和不确定的条件，从而使我们的交通系统在日常（常规）条件和紧急（非常规）事件中提供良好的服务质量？在这个研究项目中，我将在加拿大重要的两个主题领域内改进支持长途运输系统适应和多式联运的模型，以应对气候变化的影响。在主题1中，我探讨了在缓慢发生的气候变化影响的不确定性中，在领土北部的一个偏远多式联运系统中支持灵活基础设施决策的方法。在主题2中，我探索了支持自适应网络使用策略的方法，以便在具有空中和地面运输能力的省份中为紧急但不确定的事件（如野火疏散）做准备。在高水平政策研究和战术行动规划研究之间的广阔空间中，研究和实践都需要改进方法来满足这些需求。研究贡献是通过三个任务完成的。首先，我将通过探索生物物理数据与交通服务质量的相关性，开发气候-基础设施界面的表示。其次，我将构建一个框架，对不同模式的运营服务质量进行基准测试。第三，开发决策支持模型。主题1模型将指导在多式联运网络中规划分阶段基础设施项目的地点和顺序，并结合应对不断变化的条件的决策灵活性。“主题2”模型将在考虑多个优先事项的大型网络中确定收容社区和关键疏散走廊，以帮助在野火季节之前开展战略准备工作。这个项目利用了我在航空和多式联运网络方面的背景，以及在经验建模和资源分配方法方面的方法技能。该研究项目将为长距离多式联运系统提供创新的基础设施和运营决策支持方法，以适应气候变化影响下的灵活决策和适应性系统使用。它将为决策者提供工具，为系统改进分配资源，并为制定支持此类工作的政策提供知识。我将培养多样化的HQP，具有跨学科的技术技能和在加拿大和国际上备受追捧的背景知识。该项目将有助于改善多式联运基础设施系统，更好地利用公共资金，为加拿大创造一个更安全、经济上更可行、气候适应能力更强的未来。

Long-term transportation planning is made even more complex by the impacts of climate change, both slow-onset and acute events. How can we support decisions about transportation infrastructure investments and network use, that are adaptive to these changing and uncertain conditions, so our transportation systems provide good service quality in day-to-day (regular) conditions as well as emergency (irregular) events? In this research program, I will improve models that support adaptive and multimodal use of long-distance transportation systems in response to climate change impacts, within two thematic areas of importance to Canada. In Theme 1, I explore methods to support flexible infrastructure decisions, amidst the uncertainties of slow-onset climate change impacts, across a remote multimodal transportation system in the territorial north. In Theme 2, I explore methods that support adaptive network use strategies, in preparing for acute but uncertain events like wildfire evacuation, across a province with air and ground transportation capabilities. There is demand in both the research and practice for improved methods to address these needs, in the wide existing space between high-level policy studies and tactical operations planning studies. Research contributions are made through three tasks. First, I will develop representations of the climate-infrastructure interface, by exploring the relevance of biophysical data to transportation service quality. Second, I will build a framework for benchmarking operational service quality across different modes. Third, I will develop decision-support models. The Theme 1 model will guide where and in what order staged infrastructure projects can be planned across a multimodal network, incorporating decision flexibility in response to changing conditions. The Theme 2 model will identify host communities and key evacuation corridors across a large network considering multiple priorities, to aid strategic preparation efforts prior to wildfire season. This program leverages my background in aviation and multimodal networks, and methodological skills in both empirical modelling and resource allocation methods. This research program will contribute innovative infrastructure and operations decision-support methods for long-distance multimodal transportation systems, that accommodate flexible decisions and adaptive system use in the face of climate change impacts. It will provide tools for decision-makers to allocate resources for system improvements, and provide knowledge towards setting policies to support such work. I will train diverse HQP with interdisciplinary technical skills and contextual knowledge highly sought after in Canada and internationally. The program will contribute to the achievement of improved multimodal transportation infrastructure systems, and better use of public dollars towards a safer, more economically viable, climate resilient future for Canada.