Models of avian migration: development and empirical tests using automated radio-telemetry

来自地球各地的证据表明，天气模式和气候制度正在发生变化，社会必须解决动物种群是否以及如何跟上环境变化的速度。在像加拿大这样高度季节性的环境中，迁徙和繁殖的时间强烈地影响着生殖健康。然而，由于在多个空间和时间尺度上发生的环境变化，可能难以实现最佳时机。为了预测种群的反应，我们需要加强对个体如何在整个迁徙过程中预测季节变化和应对环境变化的理解。我们也不能再忽视迁徙和繁殖时间的性别和年龄差异，因为个体对非生物和生物因素的反应方式可能是性别和年龄特异性的。我的研究项目是揭示影响动物如何根据环境因素调整迁徙和繁殖时间的关键机制。我提出的发现研究计划将集中在劳伦森五大湖生态区北美鸣禽的迁徙。我的研究项目揭示了鲑鱼和鸟类季节性时间的适应性个体变化的新见解，并出现了一个广泛的主题。我的数据表明，个体动物可以灵活地调整迁徙和繁殖的时间，以最大限度地提高适应性，这可能会加速对气候变化的适应。然而，我们仍然无法预测人口的反应。我的下一步将是整合驱动鸣禽迁徙的具体机制的模型和实证研究。为了显著推进我的研究计划，我提出了三个短期目标，每个目标都与鸣禽迁徙时间的行为灵活性有关。目标一是开发年龄和性别特定迁移的空间明确模型，将个人行为与人口水平的影响联系起来。目标二是通过使用最先进的自动化数字无线电遥测系统跟踪鸟类，测试关于年龄对迁徙影响的模型预测。目的三是通过实验检验时间约束和社会便利化对迁移速度的影响。我的研究计划将推进鸣禽如何在动态景观中成功迁移的基本知识。鸣禽对加拿大具有特殊的生态、经济和文化重要性，它们是生态系统健康的哨兵。在未来5年，我将培训17名新学员和8名其他学员。这些受训者将成为生态学、进化和行为基础方面的专家，并将获得研究和模拟迁徙、能源使用和运动的技能。他们将成为在学术界、工业界、政府和非政府组织工作的高素质科学家，以确定自然资源管理的最佳实践。

Evidence from around the Earth indicates that weather patterns and climate regimes are shifting, and society must address whether and how animal populations will keep pace with the rate of environmental change. In highly seasonal environments like those of Canada, the timing of migration and reproduction strongly influences reproductive fitness. Yet optimal timing can be difficult to achieve due to environmental variability occurring at multiple spatial and temporal scales. To predict responses of populations, we need to strengthen our understanding of how individuals anticipate seasonal change and respond to environmental variability across entire migratory journeys. We also can no longer ignore sex and age differences in the timing of migration and reproduction, because the way individuals respond to abiotic and biotic factors likely will be sex- and age-specific. My research program is uncovering key mechanisms that influence how animals time their migratory and reproductive events in response to environmental factors. My proposed discovery research program will focus on the migration of North American songbirds in the Laurentian Great Lakes ecoregion. My research program has revealed new insights about adaptive individual-based variation in seasonal timing in salmon and birds, and a broad theme has emerged. My data suggest that individual animals may flexibly adjust their timing of migration and reproduction to maximize fitness, which may hasten adaptation to climate change. However, we are still not close to predicting population responses. My next step will be to integrate models and empirical studies of the specific mechanisms that drive migratory movements in songbirds. To significantly advance my research program, I am proposing three short-term objectives, each of which relates to a behavioural flexibility in migration timing in songbirds. Objective I is to develop spatially-explicit models of age- and sex-specific migration to link individual behaviour to population-level effects. Objective II is to test model predictions regarding age effects on migration by tracking birds with a state-of-the-art, automated, digital radiotelemetry system. Objective III is to experimentally test the hypothesis that time constraints and social facilitation affect migration speed. My research program will advance basic knowledge of how songbirds migrate successfully across a dynamic landscape. Songbirds have exceptional ecological, economic, and cultural importance to Canada, and they serve as sentinels of ecosystem health. Over the next 5 years, I will train 17 new students and 8 other trainees. These trainees will become experts in the fundamentals of ecology, evolution, and behaviour, and will gain skills to study and model migration, energy use, and movement. They will become highly competent scientists working in academia, industry, government, and NGOs to determine best practices for natural resource management.