Water resources systems modelling at the river-basin scale

该建议提出了一个独特的流域水资源管理模型，可以揭示未来几十年政策、基础设施、社会经济活动和环境条件变化的复杂且往往不可预测的影响。使用一种称为系统动力学的建模方法,模型将模拟变量和结果重要政府、产业和公众。它将把以下方面联系起来：1)市政、工业和农业用水；2)现有供应及其随时间的变化；3)水质及其与社会经济活动和水文条件的联系。该模型将有助于将“水安全”概念付诸实践。水安全强调1)人类和环境用水需求之间的平衡，2)面对水系统有限可预测性的适应性管理，以及3)评估各种可能用水之间的权衡。拟议的流域模型将模拟南阿尔伯塔25000平方公里弓河流域的供水、使用和水质。弓河成为一个理想的研究区域有几个原因：在干旱的年份，那里的水已经很稀缺；2006年新的水资源分配的流域关闭限制了当前和未来的用水；人口和经济活动正在迅速增长；重要的鱼类种群和省级指标使水质成为一个问题；据预测，气候变化将改变气温和降水，减少夏季的可用水量。该模型将与利益相关者团体合作开发，包括弓河流域委员会成员、省政府工作人员、市政工作人员、行业代表、灌区工作人员和公众。这些利益相关者将被邀请帮助选择管理方案，定义关键场景，评估模型行为并确保模型对决策支持有用。从科学的角度来看，该模型将填补水安全和水系统研究中的重要空白，并有可能促进对人类和水文耦合过程及其相互作用的基本理解。实际上，个别市政和农业模型组件将有助于卡尔加里市、弓河灌溉区、省级部委和其他感兴趣群体的中长期规划。完整的流域模型集成这些单个组件作为一个实际的决策支持工具在一个高水平的细节:1)项目长期分水岭轨迹合理人口的变化,气候,和市政和农业系统;2)允许对水资源管理方案可能产生的后果进行评估；3)量化水资源利用及其相关政策之间的权衡。

This proposal presents a unique water resources management model at a river-basin scale that can reveal the complex and often unpredictable effects of changes in policy, infrastructure, socio-economic activity and environmental conditions over multiple decades into the future. Using a modelling approach called system dynamics, the model will simulate variables and outcomes important to governments, industries and the public. It will link: 1) municipal, industrial and agricultural water use, 2) the available supply and its change over time and 3) water quality and its connections to socio-economic activity and hydrological conditions. The model will help to put the concept of “water security” into practice. Water security emphasizes the necessity of 1) balance between human and environmental water requirements, 2) adaptive management in the face of limited predictability of water systems and 3) assessment of trade-offs among various possible water uses. The proposed river-basin model will simulate water supply, use and quality at a weekly time step for the 25,000 km2 Bow River basin of Southern Alberta. The Bow makes an ideal study area for several reasons: water is already scarce there in dry years; basin closure to new water allocations in 2006 constrains present and future water use; human population and economic activity are rising quickly; significant fish stocks and provincial targets make water quality a concern; and climate change is projected to alter temperatures and precipitation and decrease summer-time water availability. The model will be developed in collaboration with stakeholder groups, including Bow River Basin Council members, provincial government staff, municipal staff members, industry representatives, irrigation district personnel and the public. These stakeholders will be invited to help to select management options, define key scenarios, assess model behaviour and ensure that the model is useful for decision-support.From a scientific perspective, the model will address important gaps in water security and water systems research, and offer the potential to advance a fundamental understanding of coupled human and hydrological processes and their interactions. In practical terms, individual municipal and agricultural model components will aid medium to long-term planning for the City of Calgary, Bow River irrigation districts, provincial ministries, and other interested groups. The full river-basin model will integrate these individual components to serve as a practical decision-support tool at a high level of detail to: 1) project long-term watershed trajectories for plausible changes in population, climate, and municipal and agricultural systems; 2) permit assessment of possible consequences of water resources management options and 3) quantify trade-offs among water uses and their associated policies.